- Solid gap lower to start off a new month and quarter. Still within Friday’s range which means that gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are not in play.
- Two shortened RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. sessions and some overnight ones since Friday’s close. We consider all activity since the close to be one large overnight range.
- VA’s and pivots are calculated off of Friday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. activity.
- Focus in today’s session needs to be on the Friday low and whether or not we move into the gap and by how much. Ignoring this area or filling only partially and moving back into Friday’s range would be a bullish signal that buyers are not done yet in this sequence.
| Pre Market Indications | ||
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance | |
| Overnight InventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... | balanced | |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | lower third | |
| Shock and AweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly. | yes | |
| Potential for Early Trade | yes | |
| Short Term Bias | bullish | |
Scenarios
- As discussed in video, today’s focus has to be on the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low and the unfilled gap below. Moving into the gap is a potential short, monitor for continuation.
- Any failure to move into the gap or a move into and then rejectionPrices are rejected when they move away from a key area quickly in the market profile. For example, let's say that futures open below the value area and start to rise towards it. Upon breaching the low of the value area, they rise just a couple ticks higher and then fall quickly back out of the value area. That's rejection. Rejection is often noted when prices move into "make or break" areas such as an ONH or ONL or prior day's RTH high or low from outside of those areas.
Rejection is the opposite of acceptance. back out is bullish and should be construed and played as such. In the second scenario, buy the break back up into range with stop below the lows.
| Today’s Market ProfileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. Chart |
The chart provided is from WindoTrader. CLICK HERE to learn more about the ShadowTrader discount. Interpret the chart above with the Market Profile Key.
| Virgin Point of ControlAlso called “POC” for short. The level in the futures inside the value area where either the greatest amount of volume traded in the prior session, or the greatest amount of time was spent as measured by the number of TPO’s going across. Measured this way, the POC would be the widest part of any given market profile. While ShadowTrader calculates its value areas and points of control using volume exclusively, we are always very aware of where the TPO POC is and it’s relation to current prices or patterns in the profile. Both are very important. (VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session.) | ||
| 6.29.2023 | 4430.00 | |
| 6.12.2023 | 4355.25 | |
| 6.09.2023 | 4350.50 | |
| Today’s ESThe S&P 500 e-mini contract. In the broadcast we use this as our primary instrument to define market direction and effect short term trades when we have a bias in the market. This is the electronic contract that trades around the clock, as opposed to the pit traded contract. Sometimes the pit traded version is called the “big contract”. Futures contracts on are denoted by two letters and then a letter and a number to define their expiration month. The ES has four contract periods per year which expire in March, June, September, and December. These four months are denoted by the letters H, M, U, and Z. For example, if it was 2012, then the March contract would be called the /ESH2. Thinkorswim requires a forward slash before the letters. Certain trading platforms and charting packages ma... and NQThe Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures. In the broadcast we only discuss this contract in the pre-market to get a feel for where the Nasdaq will open. Market ProfileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. and Pivot Point Numbers | ||
| Value Area HighThe high end of the range of the value area. | 4493.25 | 15359.00 |
| Point of ControlAlso called “POC” for short. The level in the futures inside the value area where either the greatest amount of volume traded in the prior session, or the greatest amount of time was spent as measured by the number of TPO’s going across. Measured this way, the POC would be the widest part of any given market profile. While ShadowTrader calculates its value areas and points of control using volume exclusively, we are always very aware of where the TPO POC is and it’s relation to current prices or patterns in the profile. Both are very important. | 4484.75 | 15351.00 |
| Value Area LowThe low end of the range of the value area. | 4477.75 | 15317.00 |
| R3 | 4536.00 | 15534.75 |
| R2 | 4517.00 | 15455.75 |
| R1 | 4503.00 | 15396.50 |
| Pivot | 4484.00 | 15317.50 |
| S1 | 4470.00 | 15258.25 |
| S2 | 4451.00 | 15179.25 |
| S3 | 4437.00 | 15120.00 |
