Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Friday, August 26, 2022

Peter Reznicek

The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESU22 and /NQU22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.

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  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balance in balance
Overnight Inventory balanced
Current Price/Overnight Range middle third
Shock and Awe no
Potential for Early Trade no
Short Term Bias neutral, currently at a flat 20sma daily
  Key Levels for Today
4220.75 Top of Gap
4202.75 RTH High (Poor) / Top of Spike
4185.25 Base of Spike
4140.00 VPOC 8.24

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Messy morning yesterday which then turned into a late day rally which left a large spike at the upper end of the distributiono putting spike rules into play.  According to those rules, the premarket indications are bullish as we are (as of now) slated to open within the spike.

Key Levels are quite spread out today but any of which could be in play as we have an important speech by Fed Chair Powell at 10am ET at Jackson Hole, Wyoming.   The market will be hanging on his every word for any clue as to the future intensity and size of rate hikes.

The upcoming speech should be the definitive clue as to whether or not this market wants to add on to yesterday’s rally or return to recent swing lows and continue on to the Fibonacci retracement levels below.   To that end, I’ve chosen an SPX daily chart for today which has some trend lines and the Fibs drawn in.   It’s about a 50/50 shot right now as whether it’s going to be 4300 or 4100.

VPOC’s 

  • 08.16  4308.25
  • 08.18  4278.00
  • 08.19  4230.75
  • 08.24  4140.00
  • 08.02  4094.25
  • 07.28  4073.50
  • 07.27  3975.00
  • 07.26  3924.25
  • 07.13  3808.00
  • 07.14  3794.25
  • 06.17  3675.50

Scenarios

  • Spike rules are in play.  Holding within the spike or above is more bullish, trading below the spike is more bearish.  
  • Expect markets to be wild after the 10am speech once they parse out exactly what they want (or don’t want) to  hear.  As the large upside gap was only filled partially yesterday, that would be an obvious target on strength.  On weakness, we have a recent VPOC from 8.24 that could be a target.  
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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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