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spike rules

A framework for analyzing a spike on the next trading day after it is formed.

Because the spike forms late in the day, it is impossible to gauge whether or not the higher or lower prices that have run quickly away from value will be deemed fair later. Thus we employ the spike rules in the next session.

Everything below is assuming a spike at the TOP of a daily range (reverse for a spike at the BOTTOM of a range)
-If prices open above the spike, that is considered bullish and tells us that prices didn’t auction high enough in the spike to attract sellers and cut off buying activity. Monitor to see if there is acceptance above the spike.
-Prices opening within the spike confirm the higher prices of the spike. This tells us that the prices are fair enough for two sided trade to again start to take place.
-Opening below the spike is more bearish and is considered a rejection of the higher prices in the spike. The prior day could then be characterized as having a selling tail.