Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Tuesday, November 1, 2022

Peter Reznicek

The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESZ22 and /NQZ22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.

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  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balance out of balance
Overnight Inventory 100% net long
Current Price/Overnight Range upper third
Shock and Awe yes
Potential for Early Trade yes
Short Term Bias market firming, short uptrend in place
  Key Levels for Today
3928.00 ONH
3880.00 VAL / ONL
3872.25 RTH Low

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Consolidation day yesterday with very tight RTH range and value area.  Overnight activity has taken out that range and is now trading on a true gap higher.  Gap rules are in play and inventory is 100% net long. The ONH is just ticks above a prior swing high and is the obvious upside reference for all involved.  Early trade will be dominated today by two dynamics.  The first would be selling pressure from those that want to fade a gap open the other would be buying pressure from those seeing that ONH level as a breakout. It’s the first day of a new month and also the day that a new FOMC meeting begins with an announcement due on Wednesday at 2pm.  This could also factor into the action today.  The beginnings of new months can often skew bullish and although the major “flattening out” usually won’t come until about midday tomorrow, markets also start to position jockey for position ahead of the announcement. With the recent bullishness, there is potential that /ES wants to move to the next large round number which would be 4,000 as seen in the chart below. VPOC’s 
  • 09.12 4128.25
  • 09.09 4067.50
  • 09.13 4004.25
  • 09.15 3935.00

Scenarios

  • Overnight inventory 100% net long and true gap higher puts gap rules into play and also the potential early fade.  AS always , if that move is muted or doesn’t materialize at all (gap rule #1), then the takeaway is bullish.  Monitor for continuation.
  • The ONL / VAL area is the line where the tone has potential to change.  I would not even begin to think short unless we were to test that area and start to find acceptance below it.  
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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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