Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Thursday, August 25, 2022

Peter Reznicek

The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESU22 and /NQU22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.

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  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balance out of balance
Overnight Inventory net long
Current Price/Overnight Range middle third
Shock and Awe yes
Potential for Early Trade yes
Short Term Bias uptrend broken, prices below 20sma daily
  Key Levels for Today
4187.75 ONH
4180.50 Bottom of Gap
4158.50 RTH High

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Large overnight gap has faded to no gap at all as prices are currently marking inside of yesterday’s RTH range. Opening above that RTH High would be a true gap higher, opening within range (even if above the settlement) would not.

Market slightly on edge ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Powell. That is happening at 10am ET tomorrow.

The last three RTH sessions have had unchanged value and I am seeing them as a balance area. We are currently well off of the ONH and that could spell some overhead supply in the early part of today’s session. Remember that there has been no real up trend since the larger move down, but more of a sideways consolidation. Unless buyers get it in gear soon and with some gusto, I would be leaning towards the downtrend resuming.

Yesterday’s chart of the day was an hourly /ES and I’m going with the same thing today as there is an important trendline from the recent swing low that we are sitting right on currently. Any price action below that line essentially stops the recent uptrend and we would officially be going back down again. Holding above it is more bullish.

 

VPOC’s 

  • 08.16  4308.25
  • 08.18  4278.00
  • 08.19  4230.75
  • 08.02  4094.25
  • 07.28  4073.50
  • 07.27  3975.00
  • 07.26  3924.25
  • 07.13  3808.00
  • 07.14  3794.25
  • 06.17  3675.50

Scenarios

  • Being so far off of the ONH and coming into range creates overhead supply which has potential to be bearish at the open.  Watch the trendline (hourly chart above) closely.   Any early weakness should target the settlement. 
  • Finding acceptance within yesterday’s range would keep the market in balance and increase odds of the downtrend resuming.  Holding outside of the recent balance would be the opposite.  
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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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