The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM22 and /NQM22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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Click HERE for a market profile key that will help you interpret the chart above.
|Opening In/Out Balance||in balance|
|Current Price/Overnight Range||lower third|
|Shock and Awe||no|
|Potential for Early Trade||no|
|Short Term Bias||/ES trendline break / short term trend change|
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
On most three day weekends futures trade a shortened RTH session that ends at 1pm ET. This weekend was no different as you can see from the small distribution in the market profile pic above. We ignore these sessions and consider them a part of the overnight activity. I’m also not calling spike rules on Friday’s late day advance as it started in M period rather than N. Those of you using study in TOS that automatically calculates the pivot levels and places them on the chart should note that your levels will be incorrect today because the software is taking the shortened session into account and counts it as a regular day.
We now have four VPOC’s stacked below us from recent trade. That may (or may not) be unsustainable. Carry it forward in your narrative and look for some of these areas to get tested (read: targets!) on any weakness over the next few sessions.
Today is an important day to not get overly caught up in what you think should happen. The markets are obviously overbought in the short term. But are you going to try and force a short today or will you attempt a short only when you have signals and context lining up that support that argument?
I’ll leave you with an hourly of the /ES showing where the uptrend line is coming in. It would make sense that we would at least see prices come into this area in today’s session. But markets don’t need to make sense in order to accomplish their objective.
- 04.21 4390.00
- 05.06 4121.00
- 05.26 4062.00
- 05.25 3948.00
- 05.24 3885.50
- 05.20 3830.50
- Potential is there for some weakness today given how far we’ve come in a very straight line and the VPOC’s stacking up below us. Context is king. Let the setup come to you rather than forcing it because you think something HAS to happen. A weak market will more than likely either have no opening drive higher or one that will be retraced back to open quickly.
- Finding acceptance and holding it in the upper part of Friday’s VA would be a bullish sign. Any lack of testing the signposts noted above should be construed as bullish. Remember to think in terms of what should happen and then let price action either confirm or deny it.
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