The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM22 and /NQM22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight Inventory | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | lower third |
| Shock and Awe | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | bearish / market on track to retest Feb lows |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Strong selling to cap off a very bearish month in the /ES with a close near the lows to boot. Not much follow through on the first trading day of a new month and a week that will bring us our first substantial rate hike from the FOMC.
While the /NQ is well below the Feb lows, the /ES is still holding slightly above. This dynamic should continue to be a part of your narrative. I have seen this many times before where new shorts will short the swing low only to find that the /NQ is so oversold at that point that it catches a bit, resulting in a false break through the low in the /ES. This is just one scenario, but keep it in mind. Location for new shorts is not the greatest right here. That doesn’t mean that the market cannot move lower, it is just a fact.
Overnight inventory is very balanced coming into today’s session coupled with the distinct lack of follow through to Friday’s RTH activity. The ONL is only a couple points below the RTH Low. While the RTH session can often be a different animal from the overnight one, for now it seems that sellers may be painting themselves into a corner. Either that, or we should consider the overnight session as needed balance to the trend (read: excess) that occurred on Friday.
- 04.21 4390.00
Scenarios
- With the futures trading just outside of range, the RTH Low / VAL is the main key level to deal with in early trade. Assume potential for short covering above that level and keeping the status quo of sellers in control below it. Target the February swing low and monitor for continuation.
- Should the market find acceptance above the RTH Low/VAL area, note that there is no potential for real change unless the ONH is breached. Consider any such action to be balancing.
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