The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM22 and /NQM22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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|Opening In/Out Balance||in balance|
|Current Price/Overnight Range||lower third|
|Shock and Awe||no|
|Potential for Early Trade||no|
|Short Term Bias||/ES trendline break / short term trend change|
|4202.50||ONH 5.27 / Swing High|
|4168.00||Triple Top Area (3 RTH Sessions)|
|4071.50||RTH Low (Weak)|
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Things were going along swimmingly for the buyers yesterday, taking out the recent RTH session triple top and closing near the high of the range with a corresponding volume POC about 3 ticks off the HOD. This morning is painting a different picture as Non Farm Payrolls came in hotter than expected sending the /ES careening lower.
Current premarket indication has us close to the middle of yesterday’s range, a few points above halfback.
Plenty of nuance to mark off on your charts this morning. The RTH High was poor and is in need of repair. The RTH Low is weak as it came within just a couple ticks of the prior sessions RTH Low. Structure was poor in yesterday’s distribution with a number of single prints interspersed throughout. Carry this forward as buyers who acted emotionally. Makes it just a bit easier for sellers to drag it back down through.
- 04.21 4390.00
- 05.26 4062.00
- 05.25 3948.00
- 05.24 3885.50
- 05.20 3830.50
- Trading in the middle of an expanded range gives us little indication as to how prices will act in early trade. The higher odds setups will come later rather than earlier in the session.
- While they are both far away from current price, bring both the RTH High and Low into your narrative for today. The high is poor and the low is weak. This means that both have an increased chance of being successful breakout points.
- I would pay attention to where value develops today. As yesterday’s range was large, a good approach would be to divide it in two. Above halfback would be more bullish and maintain the status quo, below halfback not so much and indicative of negating some of yesterday’s bullishness.
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