The Market ProfileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESZ21 and /NQZ21 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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Pre market indications
| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight InventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | upper third |
| Shock and AweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly. | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | neutral |
Key Levels for Today
| 4602.00 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
|---|---|
| 4593.75 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
| 4573.00 | Settlement / Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Solid gap higher that is just barely within range on overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... that is very balanced. Yesterday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low failed to make a new swing low which is potential evidence of bottoming action. To date, value has not yet shifted definitively higher. Continue to monitor where value develops as it is important and is the real confirmation of direction.
Today’s trade is going to be all about whether or not price can move outside of yesterday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range to the upside and remain there to build upon yesterday’s reversal. Doing so would confirm that the situation is indeed turning, failing to do so would more than likely keep value unchanged and keep bias more bearish.
I am noting that yesterday’s settlement is also overnight halfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. and a prior session VALValue Area Low. For that reason, it’s a level to watch today especially as the overnight activity is very balanced with a quite equal distribution on either side of the settlement.
VPOC’s
- 11.22 4715.25
- 11.24 4698.50
- 10.18 4471.75
- 10.14 4428.50
- 10.13 4355.00
- 10.06 4310.00
Scenarios
- Futures are more in sync that usual this morning and we are trading on a non true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. higher. Prices that remain about the settlement/overnight halfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. level should set up pullback buys with ultimate targets of the ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. and beyond, given confirming context. I would abandon that line of thinking with any acceptanceWhen the market profile begins to build out or develop in a certain area, it is said that the market is accepting those prices. This can be measured either in time spent or amount of volume that is transacted. It is generally understood that ShadowTrader defines acceptance as more of a time dynamic than a volume one. A good rule of thumb is to look for at least two TPO periods to print in the accepted area. The acceptance confirms that a significant amount of market participants are transacting at those levels. Acceptance is the opposite of rejection. More below that area.
- As mentioned above, note where value is developing today. Although there were clear signs of reversal yesterday with the failure to make a new swing low amongst others, only value developing higher will confirm this.
James Dalton - Markets in Profile
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