The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM21 and /NQM21 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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|Opening In/Out Balance||In Balance|
|Current Price/Overnight Range||In upper third, close to ONH|
|Shock and Awe||no|
|Potential for Early Trade||no|
|Short Term Bias||bullish|
|4210.25||Bottom of Single Prints|
|4198.50||O/N Halfback (prominent)|
|4173.50||Low of Balance|
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Small gap higher but still well within range. Gap rules are not in play and the higher odds plays will probably develop later rather than earlier in the session.
Yesterday’s activity represented a look above and fail as per the balance rules. This means that there is potential for rotation to the opposing end of balance which is listed in the Key Levels above. Remember that potential doesn’t mean surety.
I rarely discuss overnight distribution patterns unless there is a 45 degree line. I believe we have one of those in last night’s market profile. I listed the widest part of it in the Key Levels only because it was so prominent. It could represent overhead supply from Globex traders if we were to move below it. Certainly, the 45 degree line is at odds with the balance rules thesis that we should move to the low end of balance as it represents a lack of sellers at the ONL.
- The overnight 45 degree line is at odds with yesterday’s weak close. This could be setting up a WWSHD move higher. Use the bottom of the single print as a potential signal of strength for long bias.
- On weakness, watch the O/N Halfback area to see if we can get any acceptance there. If so, the odds increase that we move towards the ONL and potentially to the low end of balance.
- As always, don’t discount the potential to hold within balance. This would be probably signaled by range bound trading that doesn’t find acceptance above or below either of the Key Levels within yesterday’s RTH range listed above.