Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Thursday, May 13, 2021

Peter Reznicek

The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM21 and /NQM21 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.

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  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balance in balance
Overnight Inventory balanced
Current Price/Overnight Range In upper third
Shock and Awe no
Potential for Early Trade no
Short Term Bias both /ES and /NQ now below 20ma
  Key Levels for Today
4090.00 Halfback
4077.25 ONH
4056.50 Settlement
4051.00 RTH Low
4037.50 Top of Gap
4029.25 ONL
4014.50 Bottom of Gap

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Coming off of three days of expanded range, a balancing day would be in order today.  Doesn’t mean we have to get one, just that odds favor it.  Overnight inventory is very balanced and already setting up for such a move.  Responsive trade would be in the cards within yesterday’s RTH range.

Overnight activity made a new swing low which is bearish.  We don’t consider excess in terms of lows in overnight sessions, only RTH ones.

Key Levels above tell us that there is another unfilled gap below us (4.2 – 4.5) which overnight activity has started to test.  None of that, of  course, counts towards the gap fill as only RTH activity can do that.

The market has started to pay attention to rates again as they’ve crept up in lockstep with the recent tech weakness that is infecting everything else.  Keep a chart of the TNX handy.

  Scenarios

    • Overnight activity is pointing towards potential for balance. Assume same if prices hold within RTH range and look for more responsive trade.
    • Should prices get out of range to the downside, the gap below is in play. Target the ONL first and then look to the full gap fill.

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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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