Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Friday, March 12, 2021

Peter Reznicek

The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning

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  Key Levels for Today
3927.00 Settlement
3909.50 RTH Low / Top of Gap
3906.25 Bottom of Gap
3900.75 ONL

 

Small gap lower into range. Overnight inventory is very balanced with prices currently ticking close to overnight halfback. All that spells a lack of shock and awe at the open. Gap rules are not in play and the better trade will be later rather than earlier.

The overnight pullback is technical. Trade yesterday came into the SPX cash all time high which has mechanical sellers at such a visual level. Given the pattern of 100% retracement of the bear move and the fact that it came up quicker than it went down, I believe that pullbacks should be buyable in the bigger picture for those playing longer than the day timeframe. The NDX closed a daily bar above its downtrend yesterday as well.

Where we are technically doesn’t speak to a larger pullback today. Note that the overnight activity filled the gap and them some but prices are back at overnight halfback. Keep this dynamic and tone in mind as you trade today.

  Scenarios

    • The ATH in the SPX could take time to resolve. Potential is strong for some balance today. Watch for internals to be slightly conflicting. The settlement, POC, and VAL are all very close to each other and could be a responsive short.
    • Overnight activity filled the small gap but this does not count towards a fill. If context supports it, sellers can target that gap fill.

 

 

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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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