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| 3927.00 | Settlement |
|---|---|
| 3909.50 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low / Top of Gap |
| 3906.25 | Bottom of Gap |
| 3900.75 | ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
Small gap lower into range. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is very balanced with prices currently ticking close to overnight halfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level.. All that spells a lack of shock and aweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly. at the open. Gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are not in play and the better trade will be later rather than earlier.
The overnight pullback is technical. Trade yesterday came into the SPX cash all time high which has mechanical sellers at such a visual level. Given the pattern of 100% retracement of the bear move and the fact that it came up quicker than it went down, I believe that pullbacks should be buyable in the bigger picture for those playing longer than the day timeframe. The NDX closed a daily bar above its downtrend yesterday as well.
Where we are technically doesn’t speak to a larger pullback today. Note that the overnight activity filled the gap and them some but prices are back at overnight halfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level.. Keep this dynamic and tone in mind as you trade today.
Scenarios
- The ATHAll Time High in the SPX could take time to resolve. Potential is strong for some balance today. Watch for internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. to be slightly conflicting. The settlement, POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC., and VALValue Area Low are all very close to each other and could be a responsive short.
- Overnight activity filled the small gap but this does not count towards a fill. If context supports it, sellers can target that gap fill.
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