The Market ProfileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESU22 and /NQU22 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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| Opening In/Out Balance | out of balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight InventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day’s settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most… | 100% net shortThe concept of being more short than long in an options spread by creating options spreads where you are selling more structures than you are buying or selling wider structures than the ones you are buying. Example would be a broken wing butterfly. This spread is made up of two structures, one long vertical and one short vertical. In the BWB, the short vertical is wider than the long vertical. When you are long this spread, you are said to be in an options position that is “net short” |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | lower third |
| Shock and AweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly. | yes |
| Potential for Early Trade | yes |
| Short Term Bias | breaking uptrend line / testing rising 20sma daily |
| 4230.75 | Settlement / POCPoint of Control, also known as the “fairest price to do business”. It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day’s distribution where the most TPO’s printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It’s important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. |
|---|---|
| 4220.75 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
| 4198.50 | Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter’s market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. |
| 4178.50 | Top of Gap |
| 4168.75 | /ES 20 SMA Daily |
| 4138.75 | Bottom of Gap |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Large true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day’s close, or to the prior day’s high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day’s high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day’s range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a “reordering of thinking”, only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. lower as markets look ahead to Powell’s speech in Jackson Hole later this week, afraid he’ll put the hawk cap back on after huge inflation increases in Europe and UK last week. Gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day’s RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don’t fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn’t start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day’s RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day’s RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t… More are in play, especially #2 and #4.
The gap down is so large this morning that it is putting the large gap that starts at 4178.50 into play. As the uptrend from the 7.14 low is now broken, potential is there for weaker prices that may fill this large gap. Friday’s action added another VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains “virgin” until it happens during a day session. above us for a total of two. This is also a good barometer of tone shift when you start to stack them above us. Check the list down below for all current VPOCs.
The chart of the day today is a daily /ES with some key areas marked off. Early trade today will have me most interested in the 20sma (green line) and whether or not that brings any support into the market.
VPOC’s
- 08.16 4308.25
- 08.18 4278.00
- 08.09 4121.50
- 08.02 4094.25
- 07.28 4073.50
- 07.27 3975.00
- 07.26 3924.25
- 07.13 3808.00
- 07.14 3794.25
- 06.17 3675.50
Scenarios
- As with any large true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day’s close, or to the prior day’s high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day’s high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day’s range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a “reordering of thinking”, only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. lower on 100% net shortThe concept of being more short than long in an options spread by creating options spreads where you are selling more structures than you are buying or selling wider structures than the ones you are buying. Example would be a broken wing butterfly. This spread is made up of two structures, one long vertical and one short vertical. In the BWB, the short vertical is wider than the long vertical. When you are long this spread, you are said to be in an options position that is “net short”
o/n inventory, the first potential move is the fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis. Either buy the high of the first one minute bar or buy the cross back up through the open should the opening drive be lower. Monitor for continuation and target O/N halfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter’s market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. first, then on to the full gap fill. As always, judge the success or failure of the fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis by how far it goes. Keep gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day’s RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don’t fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn’t start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day’s RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day’s RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t… More #2 and #4 firmly in mind. - Any gap and go scenario should be considering the 20sma daily and the top of the gap as support. AcceptanceWhen the market profile begins to build out or develop in a certain area, it is said that the market is accepting those prices. This can be measured either in time spent or amount of volume that is transacted. It is generally understood that ShadowTrader defines acceptance as more of a time dynamic than a volume one. A good rule of thumb is to look for at least two TPO periods to print in the accepted area. The acceptance confirms that a significant amount of market participants are transacting at those levels. Acceptance is the opposite of rejection. More below both of these levels increases the odds of further weakness. Failing to hold these levels or rejecting away from them would be short term bullish. Sustained weakness would be accompanied by very low tickThe net cumulative tick reading on the NYSE or Nasdaq Composite. This is measured by the number of stocks ticking up minus the number of stocks ticking down at any given moment. It is the least used of the internal indicators but is discussed from time to time. Generally the tick readings are only helpful when they are at extremes such as +1000 on the NYSE to indicate that program trading is ensuing. readings that don’t get positive within the first 30 minutes (or later) at all and corresponding weak breadthDescribing market breadth in terms of volume for the NYSE or the Nasdaq. This is a figure composed of the net sum of the amount of volume flowing into up stocks minus the amount of volume flowing into down stocks at any given moment in each of the two respective markets. Often the advance decline line is also referred to as “breadth”, but ShadowTrader differentiates between the two by using two separate terms. Generally, the Breadth is more important than the advance decline line., A/D, and majority of 11 S&p sectors all below their opens.
James Dalton – Mind Over Markets
The seminal text on market profile theory by James Dalton. A must read for those who want to understand the auction process and the reality of price action. The starting point on any market profile journey.
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