The Market ProfileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESM21 and /NQM21 Futures are posted free every morning in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
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| Opening In/Out Balance | in balance |
|---|---|
| Overnight InventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day’s settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most… | balanced |
| Current Price/Overnight Range | in lower third |
| Shock and AweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly. | no |
| Potential for Early Trade | no |
| Short Term Bias | SPY above 20SMA, QQQ below, neutral |
| 4189.50 | VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains “virgin” until it happens during a day session. 5.3 |
|---|---|
| 4180.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
| 4160.75 | Settlement |
| 4151.00 | ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
| 4140.00 | VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains “virgin” until it happens during a day session. 5.4 |
Ongoing Narrative / Commentary
Very flat open and premarket indications above showing little to do early as overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day’s settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most… very balanced and opening within range. The better trades will develop later rather than earlier in today’s session.
It relatively rare that we have VPOC’s bookending the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range on both sides but that’s what we have today. I’ve listed both as key levels which could be targets should the market move definitively out of yesterday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range.
The overall feel here is that the market is suffering from a lack of focus. Divergence abounds with the NDX and RUT threatening to flip their bias into downtrends while the SPX holds it’s own in a more sideways trajectory.
Scenarios
- Premarket indications offer little clue as to early direction. Current prices are also very close to the settlement as well which indicates no change in the overnight session.
- Assume further balance within range with the aforementioned VPOC’s as potential targets should prices breakout in either direction.
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