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| 3978.50 | ATHAll Time High (Overnight Session) |
|---|---|
| 3949.225 | HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. |
| 3932.50 | ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. / POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. |
| 3925.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
Large gap down back into range after the FOMC rally yesterday. To say that this current market is a difficult one to trade would be an understatement. Essentially you have a lot of bullish underpinnings against one headwind of rising rates. The ten year yield gapped up again to well over 1.7 this morning.
As we are opening within yesterday’s expanded range, gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are not in play. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is surprisingly balanced for a gap down of this size and we are currently ticking in the lower third of the overnight range. Higher odds trade should develop later in the session.
When the market is continually showing a clear lack of confidence, it’s important not to let yourself get whipped around. Cash is a position. Trade smaller or not at all if things are not clear. Shorten your timeframe if you can as there are plenty of responsive intraday opportunities even while swing setups are proving more difficult.
Scenarios
- The lack of follow through on moves and the constant sensitivity to rates (although seemingly more on the /NQ side) makes trading at this time difficult. A lot of basic T/A and market profileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. theory simply fails to work. Understand that markets go through periods like this and our job is to simply not lose our shirts while we wait for more amenable conditions.
- As the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range was relatively extended, I’ve marked off HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. as a Key Level. While it can be a potential inflection point, use it more as a gauge of sentiment.
- Should further weakness come into the market, there was a lack of material excess lowA low characterized by a number of single prints that ends a move and is at the bottom of a daily market profile distribution. The minimum number of TPO's that is necessary to define an excess low is two, however when the excess has only a few TPO's, it is said to be "lack of material excess". An excess low is the opposite of a poor low, which has no single prints and is flat along the low where the TPO's line up next to each other. from 3.12 that could be repaired.
James Dalton Field of Vision
James Dalton's flagship market profileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. instruction
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