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Small gap lower, mostly on economic data that just dropped at 8:30am EST as futures were higher for most of the overnight session. Overnight inventory is net long but not 100% so. As of now we are slated to open just outside of range and are trading close to the ONL.
The range of 3.1 represents a two day balance high and low. Yesterday was an inside day with value relatively unchanged. The extremes of the March 1st session are the breakout levels for any potential larger move. Should the move be lower, I’ve marked off the VPOC from the 2.26 RTH session as a potential target.
My overall feel on the market here is that sellers are present but are simply not getting any real traction for their efforts. Yesterday’s RTH Low was a higher low and the overnight session is only moving out of the two day range on recent economic data which could be knee-jerk in nature. As always, continue to pay attention to developing value. Posting unchanged value today continues to keep the bullish thesis afloat while lower value puts it into question.
- Should we open outside of range, gap rules are in play. Watch both the 3.1 and the 3.2 RTH Lows as potential entries for rotation back up into range. Do we stay above or below these lows? Rallies to and rejections away from them are shorts as well.
- On any stronger continuation move lower, look for failure to gap fill and/or aforementioned rejection of the RTH Lows. Monitor for continuation and target the 2.26 VPOC.
- Long trades could potentially set up only if acceptance is found back above the RTH Low. Keep in mind that such longs are against the backdrop of the two day range and yesterday’s value which would be more resistant.
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