The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
| 3747.75 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. / ATHAll Time High |
|---|---|
| 3738.50 | Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. |
| 3732.25 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
| 3727.00 | TPO(MP) Stands for “Time Price Opportunity”. It is the smallest unit of measure displayed any market profile graphic, denoted by a single letter. Each TPO represents a point of time where the market being charted trades at a specific price. A single TPO is printed on the chart every time that a certain price is touched during any time period. Typically, the periods are set to 30 minutes. Therefore, every different letter that you see in the market profile distribution denotes a different 30 minute period. POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. (Prominent) |
Today is a good session to look at the ongoing narrative which can offer us clues as to how the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session will play out. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is 100% net long. Yesterday’s overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... was skewed very net long as well and the gap fill was minimal in relation to the gap. This increases the odds that we get a gap fill today. Watch the Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. closely in early trade to see if it can be crossed which may signal the full fill to the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High. Yesterday’s TPO(MP) Stands for “Time Price Opportunity”. It is the smallest unit of measure displayed any market profile graphic, denoted by a single letter. Each TPO represents a point of time where the market being charted trades at a specific price. A single TPO is printed on the chart every time that a certain price is touched during any time period. Typically, the periods are set to 30 minutes. Therefore, every different letter that you see in the market profile distribution denotes a different 30 minute period. POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. was prominent and could also be in play on further weakness.
The overnight session has notched yet another all time high and this should be carried forward in our narrative as well. Overnight ATH’s have longer odds of holding as the high of the move than RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. ones.
ValueThis value has nothing to do with valuation. It denotes prices that are "fair". Fair in this sense means a price that is common to a lot of participants. An item that you buy once per week in a store at a price that doesn't fluctuate has a "fair price". You can express this by a formula Value = Price + Time or Value = Price + Volume Either of the above are valid ways of expressing value. In the first equation, value is defined by price staying the same for a long period of time. In the futures market, this would be an area that is revisted a lot during a particular session or multiple sessions. The point of control is the price level where the most amount of time was spent during an RTH session. James Dalton refers to this level as "the fairest price to do business". Using vo... More broke away cleanly from a prior multi day balance area. This is also noteworthy and a carry forward. Regardless of how the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session plays out, keep in mind that valueThis value has nothing to do with valuation. It denotes prices that are "fair". Fair in this sense means a price that is common to a lot of participants. An item that you buy once per week in a store at a price that doesn't fluctuate has a "fair price". You can express this by a formula Value = Price + Time or Value = Price + Volume Either of the above are valid ways of expressing value. In the first equation, value is defined by price staying the same for a long period of time. In the futures market, this would be an area that is revisted a lot during a particular session or multiple sessions. The point of control is the price level where the most amount of time was spent during an RTH session. James Dalton refers to this level as "the fairest price to do business". Using vo... More unchanged to higher supports the continuation of this move. At this juncture, I would say that only valueThis value has nothing to do with valuation. It denotes prices that are "fair". Fair in this sense means a price that is common to a lot of participants. An item that you buy once per week in a store at a price that doesn't fluctuate has a "fair price". You can express this by a formula Value = Price + Time or Value = Price + Volume Either of the above are valid ways of expressing value. In the first equation, value is defined by price staying the same for a long period of time. In the futures market, this would be an area that is revisted a lot during a particular session or multiple sessions. The point of control is the price level where the most amount of time was spent during an RTH session. James Dalton refers to this level as "the fairest price to do business". Using vo... More developing well below the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low and inside of the large gap would have any potential to change the narrative.
The gap is a true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low? Here at ShadowTrader, we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade earlier (near the open) rather than later. More and gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are in play.
Scenarios
- The first scenario is essentially laid out in the first paragraph above. While odds of a gap fill are increased, don’t get wedded to that and think that it HAS to happen that way. Not getting one or again being muted gives us a lot of M.G.I.Market Generated Information. about how weak sellers are currently. Remember gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More #2 and #4.
- Any continuation play today (gap and go) may be signaled by a failure to move below Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level.. Monitor for continuation closely and make sure that internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. are strong and holding without deterioration. It will help if both /ES and /NQ are firmly in sync.
ShadowTrader Sale!
15% off all one-time purchases until midnight 12/31
Use Coupon Code: success2021 at checkout
Save 15% now
