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| 3747.75 | ONH / ATH |
|---|---|
| 3738.50 | Overnight Halfback |
| 3732.25 | RTH High |
| 3727.00 | TPO POC (Prominent) |
Today is a good session to look at the ongoing narrative which can offer us clues as to how the RTH session will play out. Overnight inventory is 100% net long. Yesterday’s overnight inventory was skewed very net long as well and the gap fill was minimal in relation to the gap. This increases the odds that we get a gap fill today. Watch the Overnight Halfback closely in early trade to see if it can be crossed which may signal the full fill to the RTH High. Yesterday’s TPO POC was prominent and could also be in play on further weakness.
The overnight session has notched yet another all time high and this should be carried forward in our narrative as well. Overnight ATH’s have longer odds of holding as the high of the move than RTH ones.
Value broke away cleanly from a prior multi day balance area. This is also noteworthy and a carry forward. Regardless of how the RTH session plays out, keep in mind that value unchanged to higher supports the continuation of this move. At this juncture, I would say that only value developing well below the RTH Low and inside of the large gap would have any potential to change the narrative.
The gap is a true gap and gap rules are in play.
Scenarios
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- The first scenario is essentially laid out in the first paragraph above. While odds of a gap fill are increased, don’t get wedded to that and think that it HAS to happen that way. Not getting one or again being muted gives us a lot of M.G.I. about how weak sellers are currently. Remember gap rules #2 and #4.
- Any continuation play today (gap and go) may be signaled by a failure to move below Overnight Halfback. Monitor for continuation closely and make sure that internals are strong and holding without deterioration. It will help if both /ES and /NQ are firmly in sync.
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