The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH19 and /NQH19 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
In yesterday’s post I laid out three scenarios for the breakout of balance. We ended up getting two of them in one session as there was a 10am look above and fail followed by a look above and go soon after. While we did close about 10 handles above the breakout level, buying action was pretty lackluster and internals were weak. I am a big believer that this sort of information should be carried forward in the same way that one would market profile patterns.
Value was a clean break from the prior day’s value but not from the four day balance area as a good portion of yesterday’s value remained within range. Much like the current goings on in Britain, I continue to give this market a “vote of no confidence”.
I have purposely taken the market profile snapshot relatively wide so that the entire four day balance range can be shown. Note that it is about 38 points from low to high. Whenever we have a clear horizontally bracketed range like that, the expected move outside of that range should be equal to the range itself. This means that the target for the SPX should be roughly 2638. The 61.80% Fibonacci retracement from the 12/3 high to the 12/26 low is at 2627 and the declining 50 ma is currently at 2631. So there is a confluence of resistance all coming together just above us as I’ve been mentioning in recent ShadowTrader Video Weeklies.
What should we expect today?
-That is hard to say but it should be obvious what the bulls need to happen in order to keep this rally going and that is to stay well above the balance high of 2600. A lot of technical work was done to muscle over this level and coming back below it would be bearish and possibly set up the move to the opposing end of balance.
-The ONH is currently at 2617.00 so that is the upside reference that needs to be taken in order for prices to move higher.
-Overnight inventory is about 98% net long so keep that in mind as the market will favor an early liquidation break to correct that imbalance. A good possible trade would be to buy any early pullback with the intention that futures will not come down to 2600 and should continue higher as yesterday was day one of a breakout. Any failure of the 2600 level would be bearish.
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Have a nice day,