Market Profile Value Areas and POC figures for /ESH7 and /NQH7 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.
Futures gapping up 5.75 as of this writing. Overnight inventory is 100% net long again as it was yesterday. Remember that it’s what the market doesn’t do that gives the most clues. Therefore, what should happen today is that the market should back off early and test the very prominent TPO POC at 2258.50. Note how in the market profile graphic above, every single 30 minute period except “K” traded there yesterday. An early liquidation break to that level and then a stabilization would be very bullish as rallies that pause to refresh themselves at TPO POC’s tend to advance on firmer footing than ones that don’t. Makes complete sense to me. If you were betting on horses would you bet on one that was well rested, or one that had just run hard for multiple days?
So that’s your downside scenario, keeping in mind that A: It doesn’t have to happen at all, and B: stronger sellers might come in and drive prices well lower than that POC, or C: the market might just meander around in the upper part of yesterday’s range flirting with a breakout that never happens. The takeaway, of course, is that you should always have your picnic basket packed and ready but also be ready to stay inside and do nothing if it rains.
I remain in the sideways to up camp.
Have a wonderful day,