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As I discussed in detail in this weekend’s video, Friday’s distribution was of the “p” formation which more indicative of just short covering rather than the more potent combination of short covering and new money buyers. As was also discussed, note that in four of the last five RTH sessions value has been overlapping. This is also signalling that buying pressure may not be enough to continue to power the market higher at this juncture.
2551.75 is the upside reference for this morning’s trade as it is the ONH. 2539.25 is Friday’s RTH high and had a small amount of excess on it. Obviously we would have to come out of the RTH range in order to put the ONH into play.
On the downside, the references would be the ONL at 2523.25 and VAL at 2512.00. A weaker market will take out the ONL early and start to find acceptance deeper into Friday’s RTH range. A stronger market will support above that ONL and start to build value higher.
I’ve left the note at the 2531.00 level on the chart which marks off the RTH double bottom area which what I’m calling the lows of the 12/17 and 12/18 sessions. As i write this I’m noting that S&P futures are currently trading right at that level after moving higher overnight and failing and also getting a bit of acceptance above this level on Friday afternoon. Levels that are noteworthy often take a bit of time to resolve so unless we see a definitive move higher today that can take out the ONH and find acceptance above it, we can still look at this area as resistance.
The overall feel and how I’m approaching things today:
-Whenever I see futures relatively flat and trading inside of the prior day’s range, I automatically think the better trade will probably develop later rather than earlier.
-The potential for a stronger down move is there as structure has been poor on this recent short covering rally and prices have tried to move above that 2531 area repeatedly but are not finding enough new buyers there to hold and move higher. A move above the ONH (on good volume, tempo, and internals) would negate this theory.
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Have an excellent day,