Today's ES and NQ Market Profile and Pivot Point Numbers

Value Area High3928.7511127.00
Point of Control3915.7511113.00
Value Area Low3871.7510885.00
R34052.7511663.75
R23990.7511414.75
R13953.0011264.25
Pivot3891.0011015.25
S13853.2510864.75
S23791.2510615.75
S33753.5010465.25

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Click HERE for a market profile key that will help you interpret the chart above.

  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balanceout of balance
Overnight Inventory100% net long
Current Price/Overnight Rangeupper third
Shock and Aweyes
Potential for Early Tradeyes
Short Term Biasreversing upwards from balance
  Key Levels for Today
3950.75Bottom of Single Prints 12.15 / Lows of previous balance area
3936.75ONH
3928.75RTH High
3911.00Top of Single Prints
3904.75Bottom of Single Prints

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Massive upwards reversal on Friday which closed near the highs and changed the tone considerably in finally breaking the market out of the recent balance area.  This has taken current prices up to the lows of a prior balance area.  I describe all this clearly in the video below.

The action Friday was accompanied by solidly bullish internals but was not without poor structure in the market profile.  Two sets of single prints were left in the distribution.  This is indicative of emotional trading (short covering) but can also be typical on “day one” of a breakout.  As always, failure to revisit those areas would be construed as short term bullish.

With overnight inventory 100% net long and prices currently hanging out close to the ONH, early trade will be defined by the fade or no fade dynamic.

VPOC’s 
  • 09.12 4128.25
  • 12.02 4075.25

Scenarios

  • True gap higher on 100% net long overnight inventory puts the early fade into play.  Consider this a gift this morning because it will confirm bullish activity all the more if there is no or only partial fade.    
  • The most key level today would have to be the prior lows in the 3950 area.  The longer term outlook will be defined by whether or not we can find acceptance above this area or fall back down into balance.  
  • Carry forward the single print sections from Friday’s distribution even if not tested today.  If tested, note how prices act at the end points and where acceptance/value develop.

Iceberg Tick

A game changer if you use the TICK as a market internal. Paints time spent above zero in green and time below in red. Traders who know how to use the TICK know that this is what really matters in terms of sustaining intraday direction, not how high or low the extremes are.

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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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