Today's ES and NQ Market Profile and Pivot Point Numbers

Value Area High3840.7510887.00
Point of Control3829.2510863.00
Value Area Low3825.7510831.00
R33878.5011019.25
R23866.0010973.25
R13847.5010897.00
Pivot3835.0010851.00
S13816.5010774.75
S23804.0010728.75
S33785.5010652.50

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Click HERE for a market profile key that will help you interpret the chart above.

  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balancein balance
Overnight Inventorybalanced
Current Price/Overnight Rangemiddle third
Shock and Aweno
Potential for Early Tradeno
Short Term Biasconsolidating in large balance area
  Key Levels for Today
3874.00ONH
3853.50RTH High / Poor High
3819.00ONL
3804.50Poor Low 12.28
3788.50Swing Low 12.22

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Grind lower yesterday but still within the larger range.  Balance rules continue to apply.  Some serious relative weakness on the /NQ side of the tape implies more bearish than bullish but /ES is going down stubbornly.  That is important M.G.I. in and of itself that should be in your daily narrative.

This morning things are being shaken up a bit by Non-Farm Payrolls coming in hotter than expected.  Futures are currently trading on a non true gap higher within yesterday’s range after spiking way up out of that range.

Value, which is always far more important than price, remains essentially unchanged with small shifts in either direction.

I’ll lay out my thoughts in more detail in the the video below.

VPOC’s 
  • 09.12 4128.25
  • 12.02 4075.25
  • 11.08 3835.25
  • 11.09 3800.75

Scenarios

  • True gap higher but on balanced overnight inventory and completely driven by the economic data released at 8:30am ET.  Potential is there for the early fade.  Use the usual techniques of shorting the low of the first one minute bar or selling the open on a cross through it after any opening drive higher.  
  • As mentioned in the video, I’ll use the RTH High area as a bullish/bearish level because the 8:30am ET surge started just below there.  Moving below it negates the entire gain off of that news and would be bearish.    
  • Balance rules continue to apply for the larger balance area.  A move outside in either direction should be accompanied by market internals that are heavily skewed in the direction of play.  Anything less may indicate that market is actually going to remain in balance.

Iceberg Tick

A game changer if you use the TICK as a market internal. Paints time spent above zero in green and time below in red. Traders who know how to use the TICK know that this is what really matters in terms of sustaining intraday direction, not how high or low the extremes are.

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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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