Today's ES and NQ Market Profile and Pivot Point Numbers

Value Area High3850.0010964.00
Point of Control3845.0010844.75
Value Area Low3821.0010945.50
R33980.5011474.50
R23941.0011328.25
R13893.5011137.25
Pivot3854.0010991.00
S13806.5010800.00
S23767.0010653.75
S33719.5010462.75

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Click HERE for a market profile key that will help you interpret the chart above.

  Pre market indications
Opening In/Out Balancein balance
Overnight Inventory100% net long
Current Price/Overnight Rangeupper third
Shock and Aweno
Potential for Early Tradeno
Short Term Biasbearish (but harder to gauge at start of year)
  Key Levels for Today
3904.00VPOC 12.21
3868.50Bottom of Single Prints
3839.25ONL / Settlement
3868.00RTH High
3814.50RTH Low
3804.50Poor Low 12.28

Ongoing Narrative / Commentary

Non true gap higher on 100% net long overnight inventory. We continue to hold within a larger range as value was completely unchanged and we had back to back POC’s at almost the exact same level.  For those slightly new to this type of analysis that means that roughly 70% of the volume of /ES happened in the exact same area for two sessions and the single price level where the most contracts traded was also the same.

As I discuss in the video, balance rules are in play for this current range. We do have minutes from the last FOMC meeting this afternoon along with employment data the next two days as well. Any of these releases have the potential to move us out of this trading range.

VPOC’s 
  • 09.12 4128.25
  • 12.02 4075.25
  • 11.08 3835.25
  • 11.09 3800.75

Scenarios

  • Yesterday’s action had a lot of early emotion that translated into a long line of single prints.  Similar to yesterday’s spike, I would use this area as a bullish/bearish line in the sand.  
  • While the gap isn’t a true gap, any overnight inventory situation that is skewed 100% gets my attention.  Traders generally have a relatively short window early in the session to correct this imbalance.  If they don’t or only do it partially, that is bullish and longs can be more favored.
  • Balance rules are in play for this larger range.  They are a good framework to keep in mind as you navigate the session.

Iceberg Tick

A game changer if you use the TICK as a market internal. Paints time spent above zero in green and time below in red. Traders who know how to use the TICK know that this is what really matters in terms of sustaining intraday direction, not how high or low the extremes are.

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Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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