Peter’s Premarket Perspective
You CAN Understand the Futures Market! STOP Guessing!
<class=”salesContainer”>
4 Benefits of Peter’s Premarket Perspective
No more “shock and awe”
Do you often wake up to large gaps and then either panic out of your current
positions or enter a new trade early only to have it reverse hard in your face starting your day with a big loss?




TRY BEFORE YOU BUY
Sign up for 1 Week FREE Trial
What is Market Profile
Developed by J. Peter Steidlmayer in 1980 and refined by James Dalton through the groundbreaking text “Mind Over Markets”, market profile is simply a way of organizing market generated information by incorporating the “3rd element” of time in addition to price and volume. Normal, two-dimensional charts are just that, two dimensional. They only show you how high or low price has gone and how much volume traded during each bar. Market profile tells us this as well but also keeps track of how much time was spent at each specific price level, thereby giving us a much better indication of where traders deem prices to be fair versus unfair. This creates enormous opportunities for the educated trader who knows how to read market profile.

Traders Who Don’t Start Their Day With Premarket Perspective Vs Traders Who Do
![]() | ![]() |
---|---|
✔ Don’t understand the difference between price and value, therefore make decisions out of fear because of fast moving prices | ✔ Stay on the top of their game by being aware of the difference between price vs value
|
✔ End up making trading decisions solely on guesswork and feel a.k.a GAMBLING, a surefire way to lose all your money | ✔ Are prepared to make money with daily insights and all the key levels marked off on their charts for a successful day |
✔ Are constantly confused and always asking “what is this market doing” | ✔ Know when to go for bigger gains rather than scalp for small moves because the odds favor it |
✔ Make foolish decisions by starting to trade right after the bell everyday | ✔ Are skilled at reading overnight action & will recognize opportunity when everyone else is anxious |
✔ Run after tiny profits while suffering large losses that wipe out many days of gains | ✔ Trade less often and with more precision and with a framework that gets them the gains they desire |
Check out FREE Sample Issues
Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Friday, January 15, 2021
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3797.75 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. / VALValue Area Low |
---|---|
3792.25 | Settlement |
3786.25 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
3763.75 | 1.7 RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low / ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
Futures a bit divergent on a small gap down this morning possibly on the heels of bank earnings and digestion of President Elect Biden’s unveiling of economic stimulus package yesterday evening. Both sides currently underwater but earlier action saw S&P’s down by about 17 while Nasdaq 100’s positive by 5.
As of now we are opening out of range on a true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. lower. While that does put gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More into play, we are well off of the ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. and also not outside of the larger balance area. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is close to 100% net shortThe concept of being more short than long in an options spread by creating options spreads where you are selling more structures than you are buying or selling wider structures than the ones you are buying. Example would be a broken wing butterfly. This spread is made up of two structures, one long vertical and one short vertical. In the BWB, the short vertical is wider than the long vertical. When you are long this spread, you are said to be in an options position that is "net short"
and we are currently ticking in the mid to lower third of the overnight range.
The lowest Key Level listed above is the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. which also corresponds closely with the 1.7 RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low. It could be argued that this RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low is the low end of the balance area as value has been tracking relatively unchanged from the value areaA range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded. The range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean which is roughly 70%. See: Market Profile of that day for five subsequent sessions. As such it is a potential downside break out level.
On the upside we will look at the usual signposts should there be a counter trend rally to the overnight trade. Look for futures to test the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low first and monitor for continuation from there to the usual markers such as VALValue Area Low, etc.
Today is the last trading day before a 3 day weekend due to the federal holiday on Monday. As such we may see volume taper a bit in later trade. That generally leads to unexpected breaks in either direction. Along the same lines, divergence between the /ES and /NQ also makes things slightly harder to navigate. Use context wisely to determine which side has the upper hand before trading in the day timeframe today.
Scenarios
- With six sessions of balance now potential continues for a larger break in either direction. A discussed above, the ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day./ 1.7 Low area could trigger overhead supply. If so, target that VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. of 1.6 at 3740.00.
- Although not fully in a shock and aweA term Peter uses to describe what overnight futures traders may be feeling when faced with an open that is wildly divergent from what they expected. Large gaps in either direction that are opening well outside of range are examples of this. The approach is that when the market opens in such a manner, there is often opportunity to trade earlier rather than later because of the large contingent of traders who will be forced to reverse their positions quickly. open, overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... could lead to an opening imbalance correction upwards.
If so, look to the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low as a potential target and monitor for continuation. The early trade today will be decided by whether this inventory will correct or not. Given that we are well off of the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. already and still within range, such a fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis is by no means a slam dunk.

ShadowTrader Trading Psychology Series
7 Hours & 19 Minutes of Video Lessons:
8 Modules in HD streaming (rewatch as often as you like)
Extensive .pdf workbook to print out and follow along as you learn
Much More!
Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Thursday, January 14, 2021
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3824.50 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. / New ATHAll Time High |
---|---|
3817.75 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
3806.00 | POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. / Settlement |
3804.25 | ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. (45 degree lineThe 45 degree line is an interesting market profile nuance. It occurs when a 45 degree line can be drawn from the lowest point of a distribution to its widest point (TPO POC). This is a sign that sellers have painted themselves into a corner near the lows of the session and creates potential for an upward reversal in the next session. As less and less time is spent the closer you get to the low of the session, sellers are essentially initiating shorts at less and less value. 45 degree line lows should be assumed to be secure until they are breached. The pattern is generally only noted in RTH sessions but they have shown to be relatively reliable signals in overnight sessions as well. The obvious question is always whether or not the 45 degree line can be drawn in from the high of the day t...) |
Overnight activity is very compressed with little range to show for an entire evening’s work by the Globex crowd. As of now we are still trading within the prior day’s range and also within the larger balance area that we discussed yesterday. Continue to carry that forward in your narrative. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is close to 100% net long and we are currently trading in the middle to lower third of the overnight range.
The overnight distribution has a 45 degree lineThe 45 degree line is an interesting market profile nuance. It occurs when a 45 degree line can be drawn from the lowest point of a distribution to its widest point (TPO POC). This is a sign that sellers have painted themselves into a corner near the lows of the session and creates potential for an upward reversal in the next session. As less and less time is spent the closer you get to the low of the session, sellers are essentially initiating shorts at less and less value. 45 degree line lows should be assumed to be secure until they are breached. The pattern is generally only noted in RTH sessions but they have shown to be relatively reliable signals in overnight sessions as well. The obvious question is always whether or not the 45 degree line can be drawn in from the high of the day t... from it’s lows. As always, less import than seeing the same pattern in an RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session but worth noting nonetheless. Assume the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. could be secure in today’s trade.
Overall, there continues to be little to say as the market remains within balance. Balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.
The possible outcomes and how to trade them are:
1. Look above and go. Prices move above the high of balance and find acceptance and continue higher. The target should be double the balance area.
2. Look above and fail. Prices move above the balance high but fail to find acceptance and reverse back into the balance area. This is now a short with a stop above the high just outside of balance that was recently made, with a target to the opposing low end of the balance area.
3. Look below and go. Prices move below the ... continue to be in play for this larger multiday range. Value has been little changed over the last five RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. sessions.
The second scenario is left over from yesterday’s PPP by design as it’s still as relevant as yesterday.
Scenarios
- There is some potential that the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. remains secure in today’s session due to the overnight pattern. I would bias long unless that ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. is taken out. I am keeping firmly in mind that for now overnight traders were not able to get any major upside breakout going and the session has been relatively muted
- Assume further balance while we remain within the balance area. Balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.
The possible outcomes and how to trade them are:
1. Look above and go. Prices move above the high of balance and find acceptance and continue higher. The target should be double the balance area.
2. Look above and fail. Prices move above the balance high but fail to find acceptance and reverse back into the balance area. This is now a short with a stop above the high just outside of balance that was recently made, with a target to the opposing low end of the balance area.
3. Look below and go. Prices move below the ... are in play. Go with any breakout from balance that has corresponding context of internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. and tempoProbably one of the most important and yet overlooked concepts in the market. The tempo is simply the ‘speed’ at which the market is moving. This is also referred to as confidence. Slow tempo is typical of range bound days where there is lots of responsive activity. Fast tempo occurs when there is initiating activity, and market is breaking out of a range. This is not to say that the market can’t have fast tempo on days when it is rotational or moving between the extremes of a value area. It certainly can. Effective intraday futures trading involves gauging the tempo and knowing that opportunities are fewer and smaller when the tempo is slow. See S.O.H.. Price action remaining within balance should be treated as responsive tradeA responsive trade is a counter-trend trade taken against a specific level. The theory is that when two sided trade is taking place, there will not be enough momentum to push past key levels and buyers or sellers will respond to those areas, essentially pushing prices away from them. This is the opposite of breakout or initiative trade which is more directional in nature and is generally taken in the direction of the prevailing trend. only.

ShadowTrader Trading Psychology Series
7 Hours & 19 Minutes of Video Lessons:
8 Modules in HD streaming (rewatch as often as you like)
Extensive .pdf workbook to print out and follow along as you learn
Much More!
Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Wednesday, January 13, 2021
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3824.50 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. / New ATHAll Time High |
---|---|
3794.50 | TPO(MP) Stands for “Time Price Opportunity”. It is the smallest unit of measure displayed any market profile graphic, denoted by a single letter. Each TPO represents a point of time where the market being charted trades at a specific price. A single TPO is printed on the chart every time that a certain price is touched during any time period. Typically, the periods are set to 30 minutes. Therefore, every different letter that you see in the market profile distribution denotes a different 30 minute period. & Volume POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. (2 sessions) |
3768.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
I could easily just have left yesterday’s commentary untouched and that would have been ok today. Absolutely no change yesterday as value was almost identical to the prior session. The balance area continues to get larger which should increase the size of the break when it comes.
Balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.
The possible outcomes and how to trade them are:
1. Look above and go. Prices move above the high of balance and find acceptance and continue higher. The target should be double the balance area.
2. Look above and fail. Prices move above the balance high but fail to find acceptance and reverse back into the balance area. This is now a short with a stop above the high just outside of balance that was recently made, with a target to the opposing low end of the balance area.
3. Look below and go. Prices move below the ... are in play and as such the Key Levels above are few by design. Think about all price action today in the context of the balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.
The possible outcomes and how to trade them are:
1. Look above and go. Prices move above the high of balance and find acceptance and continue higher. The target should be double the balance area.
2. Look above and fail. Prices move above the balance high but fail to find acceptance and reverse back into the balance area. This is now a short with a stop above the high just outside of balance that was recently made, with a target to the opposing low end of the balance area.
3. Look below and go. Prices move below the .... Any activity within the balance area is responsive and the market telling us that it is waiting for more information before establishing value elsewhere.
Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is very balanced and current prices on a small gap lower are trading in the middle to lower third of the overnight range. This M.G.I.Market Generated Information. has far less import than it would if we were opening out of range. Obviously, again a day to trade later rather than earlier.
Scenarios
- Assume further balance while we remain within the balance area. Balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.
The possible outcomes and how to trade them are:
1. Look above and go. Prices move above the high of balance and find acceptance and continue higher. The target should be double the balance area.
2. Look above and fail. Prices move above the balance high but fail to find acceptance and reverse back into the balance area. This is now a short with a stop above the high just outside of balance that was recently made, with a target to the opposing low end of the balance area.
3. Look below and go. Prices move below the ... are in play. Go with any breakout from balance that has corresponding context of internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. and tempoProbably one of the most important and yet overlooked concepts in the market. The tempo is simply the ‘speed’ at which the market is moving. This is also referred to as confidence. Slow tempo is typical of range bound days where there is lots of responsive activity. Fast tempo occurs when there is initiating activity, and market is breaking out of a range. This is not to say that the market can’t have fast tempo on days when it is rotational or moving between the extremes of a value area. It certainly can. Effective intraday futures trading involves gauging the tempo and knowing that opportunities are fewer and smaller when the tempo is slow. See S.O.H.. Price action remaining within balance should be treated as responsive tradeA responsive trade is a counter-trend trade taken against a specific level. The theory is that when two sided trade is taking place, there will not be enough momentum to push past key levels and buyers or sellers will respond to those areas, essentially pushing prices away from them. This is the opposite of breakout or initiative trade which is more directional in nature and is generally taken in the direction of the prevailing trend. only.
- Assume further balance while we remain within the balance area. Balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.

ShadowTrader Intraday Volume Measure
COMPARE INTRADAY VOLUME IN ANY TIMEFRAME
Fully Customizable Settings!
$20 Buy NowPeter’s Premarket Perspective | Tuesday, January 12, 2021
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3824.50 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. / New ATHAll Time High |
---|---|
3810.50 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
3781.00 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
Second session in a row where we have all overnight activity inside of the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range. Market is in balance with value relatively unchanged for three sessions. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is also quite balanced and we are currently trading in the middle third of the overnight range. All of that obviously points to higher odds opportunities presenting themselves later in the session rather than earlier.
Consider the last three RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. sessions to be a balance area. Apply balance rulesWhen a market is in balance, meaning that it is consolidating in a tight range of two or more days, then balance rules apply. The balance rules are nothing more than a framework of scenarios that could happen which prepare us for every possible outcome.
The possible outcomes and how to trade them are:
1. Look above and go. Prices move above the high of balance and find acceptance and continue higher. The target should be double the balance area.
2. Look above and fail. Prices move above the balance high but fail to find acceptance and reverse back into the balance area. This is now a short with a stop above the high just outside of balance that was recently made, with a target to the opposing low end of the balance area.
3. Look below and go. Prices move below the ... to that range.
Liquidation breaks continue to be rebuffed. The market is continuing to balance off the most recent rally. I continue to carry forward that there is an ATHAll Time High in an overnight session that is potentially unsecure.
Scenarios
- The usual way to look at balanced overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... that is inside of the prior day’s range is to assume that said balance has potential to continue into the the day session. That being the case, expect responsive tradeA responsive trade is a counter-trend trade taken against a specific level. The theory is that when two sided trade is taking place, there will not be enough momentum to push past key levels and buyers or sellers will respond to those areas, essentially pushing prices away from them. This is the opposite of breakout or initiative trade which is more directional in nature and is generally taken in the direction of the prevailing trend. while we remain within range and use the extremes of both yesterday’s range and the larger balance area as go/no-go levels for larger initiative moves.

Beginner Options Advisory
Learn to Profit with the use of simple spreads like verticals and butterflies.
Get access to Real time trades sent to you via email
Exclusive access to private members-only webinars to teach you the basics of options
Weekly recaps of all trading activities
All for ONLY $49/month
Peter’s Premarket Perspective | Monday, January 11, 2021
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3824.50 | ONH / New ATH |
---|---|
3814.75 | VAH |
3793.25 | VAL |
3774.75 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low |
3740.00 | VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. 1.6 |
Solid gap lower of about 27 handles as I go to press here. For now still within range so not a true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. and gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are not in play. That’s important to note as many think that they automatically are when gaps are large. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is 100% net shortThe concept of being more short than long in an options spread by creating options spreads where you are selling more structures than you are buying or selling wider structures than the ones you are buying. Example would be a broken wing butterfly. This spread is made up of two structures, one long vertical and one short vertical. In the BWB, the short vertical is wider than the long vertical. When you are long this spread, you are said to be in an options position that is "net short"
and we are currently trading very close to the ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day..
In using market profileA way of reading the market that recognizes either time spent or volume traded at a particular price level. A market profile can be either made up of “TPO’s” (time price opportunities), or volume. TPO’s measure how much time was spent at a particular price, while volume-based market profiles measure how much volume traded at a particular price. Generally, market profile is used in the trading of futures, especially the /ES. ShadowTrader utilizes volume based profiles. to organize M.G.I.Market Generated Information., it is important to understand that there are longer term signals that we enter into an ongoing narrative and there are shorter term signals that we use to help us discern where the potential is for movement on that particular day. Let’s start with the longer term narrative…
-The overnight session coming into today made a new all time high in that overnight session. That is a carry forward as a high that is potentially unsecure.
-Value has been clearly higher for three sessions, however two of those sessions were back to back “p” formation distributions indicative of early short covering and emotional buying.
The above tells us a lot about the state the market right now. In a nutshell, things are bullish, they should go higher, and it’s important to always keep in mind now we got here.
On a more granular level, we have overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... 100% net shortThe concept of being more short than long in an options spread by creating options spreads where you are selling more structures than you are buying or selling wider structures than the ones you are buying. Example would be a broken wing butterfly. This spread is made up of two structures, one long vertical and one short vertical. In the BWB, the short vertical is wider than the long vertical. When you are long this spread, you are said to be in an options position that is "net short"
however within range. While we are not on a true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. lower, we should still come into the open thinking that if new money sellers don’t emerge quickly, then the potential for strong short covering is there. Note from the overnight distribution that the bulk of it is within the value areaA range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded. The range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean which is roughly 70%. See: Market Profile which is a sign of acceptanceWhen the market profile begins to build out or develop in a certain area, it is said that the market is accepting those prices. This can be measured either in time spent or amount of volume that is transacted. It is generally understood that ShadowTrader defines acceptance as more of a time dynamic than a volume one. A good rule of thumb is to look for at least two TPO periods to print in the accepted area. The acceptance confirms that a significant amount of market participants are transacting at those levels. Acceptance is the opposite of rejection. More of the higher prices from Friday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session. I am also noting that Friday’s close was at the very top of the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range at the end of a small spikeA set of single prints that are created in the last 30 minute session of the day which form at the top or bottom of a range. and away from the volume POCPoint of Control, also known as the "fairest price to do business". It is the price level in the /ES where the greatest amount of volume in the prior RTH session traded. ShadowTrader measures the POC using volume but the traditional way is to mark off the widest point of the day's distribution where the most TPO's printed going across from left to right, indicating that that was the price where the most time was spent. It's important to pay attention to both the volume POC and the TPO POC. and value areaA range where approximately 70% of the prior days volume traded. The range is derived from one standard deviation on either side of the mean which is roughly 70%. See: Market Profile. Thus some of the overnight selling has to be attributed to the simple fact of buyers closing the market a bit ahead of themselves.
Scenarios
- As discussed above, there is potential for early short covering given the overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... situation. Judge the open on how much of that if any occurs.
- Should there be a fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis higher, monitor for continuation using the usual signposts as targets starting with VALValue Area Low and moving higher from there.
- A sell signal will occur if there is an opening drive lower that cannot recover or if there is an early fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis that stalls and returns back to the open. In such a scenario, a short can be taken at the opening print with a stop over HODHigh of Day. Monitor for continuation with an ultimate target at the VPOCVirgin Point of Control. This is a point of control level that has not yet been tested (traded through) during an RTH session. If the POC gets tested during an overnight session, it does not count and remains "virgin" until it happens during a day session. of 1.6

ShadowTrader Weekly Options Advisory
-Real time text messages on all entries, exits, and adjustments
-Private, members-only webinars every Thursday
-Includes 2-3 "What's Peter Thinking" recorded audio updates daily!
$49 per monthPeter’s Premarket Perspective | Tuesday, December 29, 2020
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESH21 and /NQH21 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.
WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3747.75 | ONH / ATHAll Time High |
---|---|
3738.50 | Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. |
3732.25 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
3727.00 | TPO POC (Prominent) |
Today is a good session to look at the ongoing narrative which can offer us clues as to how the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session will play out. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is 100% net long. Yesterday’s overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... was skewed very net long as well and the gap fill was minimal in relation to the gap. This increases the odds that we get a gap fill today. Watch the Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level. closely in early trade to see if it can be crossed which may signal the full fill to the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High. Yesterday’s TPO(MP) Stands for “Time Price Opportunity”. It is the smallest unit of measure displayed any market profile graphic, denoted by a single letter. Each TPO represents a point of time where the market being charted trades at a specific price. A single TPO is printed on the chart every time that a certain price is touched during any time period. Typically, the periods are set to 30 minutes. Therefore, every different letter that you see in the market profile distribution denotes a different 30 minute period. POC was prominent and could also be in play on further weakness.
The overnight session has notched yet another all time high and this should be carried forward in our narrative as well. Overnight ATH’s have longer odds of holding as the high of the move than RTH ones.
Value broke away cleanly from a prior multi day balance area. This is also noteworthy and a carry forward. Regardless of how the RTH session plays out, keep in mind that value unchanged to higher supports the continuation of this move. At this juncture, I would say that only value developing well below the RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. Low and inside of the large gap would have any potential to change the narrative.
The gap is a true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. and gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are in play.
Scenarios
- The first scenario is essentially laid out in the first paragraph above. While odds of a gap fill are increased, don’t get wedded to that and think that it HAS to happen that way. Not getting one or again being muted gives us a lot of M.G.I.Market Generated Information. about how weak sellers are currently. Remember gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More #2 and #4.
- Any continuation play today (gap and go) may be signaled by a failure to move below Overnight HalfbackA term for the halfway point between the high and low of any session, could be a day session or an overnight session. On Peter's market profile charts it is always a dark yellow horizontal line at that level.. Monitor for continuation closely and make sure that internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. are strong and holding without deterioration. It will help if both /ES and /NQ are firmly in sync.

ShadowTrader Sale!
15% off all one-time purchases until midnight 12/31
Use Coupon Code: success2021 at checkout
Save 15% nowPeter’s Premarket Perspective | Tuesday, November 3, 2020
The Market Profile value areas and ShadowTrader Pivots for /ESZ20 and /NQZ20 Futures are posted free every morning
in the ShadowTrader Swing Trader newsletter.

WindoTrader 702-800-4628 Speak with Terry about the ShadowTrader discount
3376.25 | Top of Gap |
---|---|
3349.75 | ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
3333.75 | Bottom of Gap |
3323.50 | RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. High |
3299.25 | Settlement / ONLOvernight Low. A term mostly used for the futures market as it trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this would be the lowest price between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. |
Solid true gapThere is a lot of discussion as to what constitutes a gap. Is it measured to the prior day's close, or to the prior day's high or low. Here at ShadowTrader we believe that it is always and only to a prior day's high or low, thus creating a true gap or space on the chart between one day and the next. Thus a true gap is one that has price opening completely outside of the prior day's range (either above the high or below the low) and anything else is just a gap that has far less import. As a gap is a "reordering of thinking", only a true gap really changes the tone and creates opportunity to trade early rather than later. higher on this election day. Gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are in play.
Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is 100% net long and as of now we are slated to open in the upper third of the overnight range.
There is a large unfilled gap above yesterday’s range into which overnight activity has ventured forth. This is simply a carry forward to know that we are opening inside of a gap. Only RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. activity counts towards actually repairing this structure.
If there is any early fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis, the bottom of the gap could be a support point where stronger buyers emerge. Keep that in mind as a Key Level today.
While it’s a long way away from current price, I must mention that yesterday’s RTH Low is one to carry forward into your narrative. The low was both poor and weak. It is a poor lowA poor low is one which lacks excess and is the opposite of an excess low. A poor low will have less than two TPO's of excess at the bottom of a daily range with at least 2-3 columns of TPO's lining up to form a flat looking bottom. It indicates that there are short term or weak handed shorts at that low of day area. We know this because every time prices sell off to the low, they get covered quickly, thus forming the poor low.
The poor low has two forward looking indications. The first is that prices should bounce away from the poor low as there are a number of shorts trapped at poor location. The second is that if the next day or in some subsequent session, the poor low is revisited, then the odds are strong that it will break and move lower. This is called repair as it repairs the ... due to lack of excess and it is a weak lowA weak low should not be confused with a poor low. The latter speaks to a deficiency in structure and the former deals with the location of the low. A weak low is formed when a market falls and reverses right at a specific point which is often a technical or profile nuance. Some examples would be prior intraday lows, the lower extreme of a value area, the prior day's settlement, or the current day's open. In each case, the location is a mechanical and visual reference that is used by short term traders as an entry point. The low is deemed weak because it can be taken easily when retested due to the short term nature of the buyers who initiated their positions at that level. because it stopped dead on the prior RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session’s settlement. Mark it off on your charts as it will be a good short should it ever be tested again.
As this is the last RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. session before the election, expect some craziness as players jockey for position ahead of the results. Very difficult to say how futures will react this evening, so comport yourselves accordingly.
Scenarios
- Gap rulesGuidelines to follow on any day that the futures open outside of the prior day's RTH range. Only opening outside of range is a true gap and puts gap rules in play. 1. Go with all gaps that don't fill right away. This means that if early trade doesn't start to correct the imbalance, then prices will probably move in the direction of the gap. 2. Larger gaps can often fail to fill on the first day or may fill only partially. 3. If the gap fills (meaning the prior day's RTH high is touched on a gap up or the prior day's RTH low is touched on a gap down) and value cannot get to at least overlapping, then the odds of a late day rally (on a gap up) or late day selloff (on a gap down) increase. 4. Gaps of larger than $20 in the /ES are difficult to trade and should be avoided early in the day as t... More are in play. As such, the first scenario is always the potential fadeWhen a stock moves opposite the direction of its gap on an intraday basis. Overnight inventoryA way of measuring overnight activity in the futures market by just noting how much of the overnight activity happens to fall above the prior day's settlement value (4:15pm EST close) and how much falls below. If more activity is above the settlement, then overnight inventory is said to be net long. If more is below, then it is said to be net short. If all of the overnight activity is above the settlement, then it is said to be 100% net long. If all of the activity is below the settlement then it is said to be 100% net short. The overnight inventory situation matters most and has the most impact on early trade when it is skewed 100% in either direction because when the imbalance is very large like that then the odds of an early correction increase greatly. This is due to the fact that most... is 100% net long and we are well out of range so the setup is there. Look for early failure to take out the ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. and/or crosses back below the open after any opening drive higher. Monitor for continuation and consider the Bottom of the Gap as potential support.
- The upside gap should fill at some point and that could be today. If this is the scenario, then the ONHOvernight High. A term mostly used in describing the futures market which has an overnight session and trades almost around the clock. To be precise, in the /ES this is the high made between 4:30pm EST and 9:30am EST the next day. will get taken on strong tempoProbably one of the most important and yet overlooked concepts in the market. The tempo is simply the ‘speed’ at which the market is moving. This is also referred to as confidence. Slow tempo is typical of range bound days where there is lots of responsive activity. Fast tempo occurs when there is initiating activity, and market is breaking out of a range. This is not to say that the market can’t have fast tempo on days when it is rotational or moving between the extremes of a value area. It certainly can. Effective intraday futures trading involves gauging the tempo and knowing that opportunities are fewer and smaller when the tempo is slow. See S.O.H. and bullish internalsInternals refers to “market internals” and is a blanket term to collectively describe the advance decline, breadth, tick and cumulative tick. and traders should monitor for continuation.
- Anything more playable to the downside would be presaged by a failure to hold above the Bottom of the Gap and subsequent full gap fill that then finds acceptance within yesterday’s RTHRegular Trading Hours. In the /ES this means the price action from 9:30am EST to 4:15pm EST only. range.

A Bet and a Victor eBook
Best way to dip your toe into the ocean of Trading Psychology for a tiny price. Follow protagonist Victor and see how many of his trading psychology pitfalls you recognize!
$20 - Get Yours TodayWhat Current Readers of Premarket Perspective are Saying
The Most Widely Read Premarket Analysis In The World
Join for just $20/month
Enjoy 1 Week FREE Trial