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Market Profile Analysis of S&P futures – 05.16.18

By
Peter Reznicek
Co-founder/Head Trader, Peter's Premarket Perspective, Weekly Optoins advisory

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

market profile

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Yesterday gave us lots of information about what the market is doing currently. Let’s recap.

-It was the first day of a new down trend after a reversal day at resistance the prior day.
-Selling was not nearly as strong as one would expect given the context.
-There was a gap to fill from the 5/9 TO 5/10 session the bottom of which was 2700.00. Yesterday’s RTH low stopped short by a few ticks of that level, never truly filling the gap.
-The TPO POC could be more prominent but one could make the argument that there is a 45 degree line from the low to the widest point of yesterday’s distribution. Again, slightly too steep but let’s say 45-ish. That’s a sign that sellers are painting themselves into a corner as progressively less and less value is developing at lower and lower levels.

Coming into this morning, the market generated information (the overnight session) that we now have as data is confirming all of the above. The bulk of the overnight session is squarely within yesterday’s value area. The ONL is nowhere near yesterday’s RTH low so there is no price exploration lower at this point. Beyond that, the overnight distribution is very symmetrical and balanced.

Let’s think ahead to what could happen today….

-Value develops relatively equal to yesterday. This would confirm everything above and that the market is consolidating (working off the froth) more by time than price. If so you’ll start to see strong stocks (like NFLX for example) start moving higher ahead of the market.
-The market moves down hard below yesterday’s low and starts to develop value clean to the downside. In such an instance the job would be to constantly monitor for continuation. If it’s going to be anything, then it should get out of yesterday’s range and stay out of it.
-The ONH and RTH highs get taken out on good momentum/tempo. This would tell us that there are almost NO sellers in this market and that the recent pullback was just a slight reaction to the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement and the market is headed much higher.

In Profile Speramus……
-peter

Written by Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of ShadowTrader.net and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at asktheshadow@shadowtrader.net.

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