As we mentioned previously, many correlations are associated with exports of goods, however, this correlation we will look at interest rates, specifically the treasuries, and the EUR/USD. This correlation may seem a little less directly connected compared to those discussed in the previous discussions. Previously, we focused on significant components of each of the economies. […]
Although most correlations are directly tied to imports and exports, the correlation between the AUD/JPY and U.S. equities is one of the strongest, despite the indirect connection. If you have been a student of the financial markets for any significant period of time, you are aware that the financial markets are driven not just by […]
In this weekend update, we look some catalysts impacting Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. Over the past year during the FX Hour, I have responded to questions about Bitcoin and possible game changers that could or would cause Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to cool down. It has been my opinion that government regulation and change or definition […]
In this weekend update we look at the European Central Bank (ECB) minutes. During the ECB press conference, Mario Draghi indicated that the central bank is likely to revisit its communication stance in early 2018. A revisit of the communication stance is being read as an indication that they would begin reducing their bond purchasing/ […]
U.S. equities sold off early in the day but were able to recover and close flat for the day. Gold prices spiked higher to test resistance and oil prices edged higher. We are seeing a continuation of bullishness in equities and commodities but it appears as the momentum is dissipating. The U.S. dollar fell to […]
In this weekend update, we review nonfarm payroll again. you may notice that I have a propensity to discuss nonfarm payroll multiple times per year and most months. This focus is due to the importance of employment in any economy. The U.S. economy attributes 65% or more of the GDP to consumers. This month’s report […]
ADP nonfarm payroll reported in at the highest level seen in 6 months. ADP is considered an early indicator of the government’s nonfarm payroll reported Friday. Equities climbed for the third day in a row and appear to be targeting bullish days every day of the week to start 2018. The U.S. dollar lost ground […]
Happy New Year. In this weekend update, we look back to 2017 and quickly review some of the more significant and impactful world events. Certainly, we can look back at any given year and identify major events but it seems as though every year there are new more significant events as we become more and […]
U.S. equities are in a holding pattern and traded flat again and we are seeing commodities continue to rally. We have seen copper rally 15 days in a row to record highs. The bullish commodities seem to be an indication of inflation which is weakening the U.S. dollar. The EUR/USD is testing trend resistance. We […]
In this weekend update, we look at the Catalonian elections. This week the Catalonian elections shifted the balance of power to those that would support independence from Spain. Catalonia is about 17% of the population of Spain but contributes more than 20% of the GDP (about 224 billion euros annually). Although, Catalonia is small (only […]
In this weekend update, we review the FOMC statement. This week, the FOMC statement was raised rates as was expected. The statement was not hawkish or dovish, it was swinish. The rate hike was the swansong of Janet Yellen as part of her final meeting as the Fed Chair. The statement was not only lacking […]
In this weekend update, we look at the upcoming FOMC rate decision. In the upcoming week, we will get to watch the FOMC rate decision and see if the Fed will raise the key interest rates another 25 basis points. The analysis is demonstrating a high likelihood of a rate hike. In our own calculation […]
The U.S. dollar strengthened more today. As we are only one week away from the FOMC rate decision, the U.S. dollar could continue to climb. Gold prices slipped inversely to the U.S. dollar as we would normally expect. U.S. equities gapped down to start the day but recovered to close relatively flat today. Similarly, 5 […]
In this weekend update, we look at the Fed and the flattening yield curve. This past week the continued increase of equities and in the probabilities of a Federal Reserve rate hike has kept volatility low and flattened the yield curve. In looking at the yield curve we can see the small difference between rates. […]
