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Market Profile Analysis of S&P Futures – 03.12.18

Peter Reznicek
Founder, Editor in Chief

Value Areas and POC figures for /ESM8 and /NQM8 Futures are posted free every morning HERE. Click on any posts in the list on the left pane to see them in the main window. Don’t click on the ST logo as it will just refresh the page and you’ll get only the topmost post over and over. Click on the title or text.

market profile

2/27 high at 2795.00 has been taken out in the overnight session. This would represent a 100% retracement of the recent pullback.

Friday’s distribution was poor in terms of structure, very stretched out and thin. Note that if you click to enlarge the graphic and look closely there are five different distributions within the profile separated by single prints spikes. As always, all tops and bottoms of spikes can be turning points in today’s trade.

As with any extended range, halfback is always to be noted. This level on Friday was 2774.00.

My overall take here is that when you make a 100% retracement like we just did, the next move will be sideways to higher. The market needs to digest the recent gain but at the same time there are still shorts that are shell-shocked and haven’t covered which leads to some balancing action at the highs.

Overnight inventory is 100% net long and futures are well off of the ONH as I write this at 8:30am EST. The ONH is at 2805.25 and is the upside reference.

As with any true gap (outside of the prior day’s range), gap rules apply. When gap rules apply, the RTH of the prior session is a reference as well. Today that level is at 2792.00. You will gauge strength or weakness in today’s session by how deeply past the RTH high (if at all) prices retrace. When they do, pay attention to tempo. Note where acceptance and rejection are occurring.

Have a great day,

Written by Peter Reznicek

Peter Reznicek is the founder of and writer of Peter's Premarket Perspective, a morning market profile blog to help people plan their trading day and organize their thoughts before the market opens. He can be reached at

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