The ShadowTraderPro F/X Trader is your daily companion to the foreign exchange markets. Each issue contains a look at an emerging currency trade setup from a technical perspective, along with selected news on the four major pairs and a full economic calendar specifically tailored to the Forex trader. The report also contains potential F/X trade setups which are listed with defined entry, defined target and defined stop. Subscribers receive email confirmations and updates on these trades so that they can follow along.
If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to fxtrader@shadowtrader.net.
Dollars & Sense
Good Afternoon, Forex Traders. For today's commentary, I wanted to remind everyone of the guidelines for trade entry as far as trade signals discussed in the newsletter. Any commentary in Dollars & Sense is not to be assumed that it is a trade setup. It is simply commentary on what we are watching and notes about the potential trade set ups. An actual trade setup, must be listed in the FX Trader Live Calls section of the advisory in order to be a valid trade set up.
If the Live Calls area says there is a buy stop, sell stop, buy limit, or sell limit, then these are all entry signals to be placed with your dealer with a stop loss and in most cases a target (limit). These trades are only valid until 5pm of the day that your F/X Trader is dated. For example, trades in Live Calls received in the newsletter on Monday night are only good until 5pm EST Tuesday. Assume that a trade is valid until then unless an advisory email comes out changing or cancelling the trade. If the trade is going to remain valid past the next day, it will be listed again in the Live Calls. If it isn't in the live calls the next day, it has been cancelled. Also as a reminder, when placing a trade with a stop and a target, use an OCO (one cancels other) so when one side triggers the other side is cancelled and doesn't become a new, unintentional entry.
If you receive an advisory that is adjusting a position and it says a sell stop triggered, this is to say a previously set up trade hit a price target and entered the trade. If your trade was set up appropriately, you will be in the trade at the triggered price, not at the price the pair is trading at when you receive the email confirming the entry.
The EUR/USD broke the support trend line we were watching triggering our sell stop at 1.3333. The pair did move in a nice pattern for part of the day but not as far as we want. The consolidation is prompting a further tightening of our stop loss and our profit target. We are adjusting our stop to 1.3300 and our price target to 1.3140. This allows us a good risk to reward still and protects part of our profits. (see EUR/USD below).
The USD/JPY broke through support as well, triggering our sell stop. The pair moved for us but not like we would have liked it to. We are further tightening our stop to 100.75, about 15 pips above the current resistance trend line. Our target will remain at the revised 99.95. Some volatility after hours could help us hit our target. (below).
The GBP/USD has been our ally giving us another win in under 4 days of trading. The pair traded to our trigger before retracing, significantly. The price has flattened out now but hasn't provided a clear sense of direction nor clear barriers for pattern trading. We will wait until tomorrow before looking for another trade set up on the GBP/USD. (see GBP/USD below).
Major Pair Scoop
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar gained on Tuesday as a drop in global stocks, ahead of the start of what is expected to be a weak corporate results season, boosted the greenback's allure as a safe haven.
Data in Europe showing the euro zone economy recorded its deepest-ever quarterly fall in the fourth quarter of 2008, also weighed on the euro.
Bank stocks and industrial conglomerate shares led declines in Europe and on Wall Street.
"There is caution ahead of the earnings season," said Matthew Strauss, senior currency strategist at RBC Capital Markets in Toronto. "Although we had some optimism about the economy in recent sessions, this earnings season would be a reality check."
Investors will learn more about the recession's toll on U.S. corporate profits in the comings weeks. According to data from Thomson Reuters, first-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to fall by almost 37 percent versus a year ago as global demand slumps.
In late afternoon trading in New York, the euro fell 1.0 percent to $1.3272
In Europe, data was revised down to show the euro zone economy fell 1.6 percent in the fourth quarter from a previous 1.5 percent reading. The report coincided with a 12th straight month of decline in British manufacturing output in February and a record 50 percent fall in March steel output in Germany.
Meanwhile, a Business Roundtable survey released earlier showed U.S. chief executives' confidence in the economy set a second consecutive all-time low in the first quarter. More than two-thirds of the CEOs surveyed said they planned more layoffs and capital spending cuts in the next six months.
The dollar rose 0.5 percent against a basket of currencies to trade at to 85.189 .DXY. Investors tend to buy the dollar as a haven amid global risk aversion despite weak U.S. economic fundamentals.
F/X Economic Calendar
Up and coming economic data relative to f/x markets that may move markets this week.
| Date | Time (GMT) | Currency | Description | Importance | Forecast | Previous |
|
4/8/2009 |
12:30 AM |
AUD |
Westpac
Consumer Confidence (APR) |
medium |
|
-0.002 |
|
4/8/2009 |
5:00 AM |
JPY |
Eco Watchers
Survey: Outlook (MAR) |
medium |
|
26.5 |
|
4/8/2009 |
6:00 AM |
EUR |
German
Trade Balance (FEB) |
medium |
7.5B |
8.5B |
|
4/8/2009 |
6:00 AM |
EUR |
German
Current Account (FEB) |
medium |
5.8B |
4.2B |
|
4/8/2009 |
12:15 PM |
CAD |
Housing Starts
(MAR) |
medium |
132.0K |
134.7K (R+) |
|
4/8/2009 |
18:00 PM |
USD |
Minutes
of FOMC Meeting |
high |
|
|
|
4/9/2009 |
1:00 AM |
AUD |
AUD
Consumer Inflation Expectation (APR) |
medium |
|
0.022 |
|
4/9/2009 |
1:30 AM |
AUD |
Employment
Change (MAR) |
high |
-25.0K |
1.8K |
|
4/9/2009 |
1:30 AM |
AUD |
Unemployment
Rate (MAR) |
medium |
0.054 |
0.052 |
|
4/9/2009 |
5:45 AM |
CHF |
Unemployment
Rate (MoM) (MAR) |
medium |
0.035 |
0.034 |
|
4/9/2009 |
5:45 AM |
CHF |
Unemployment
Rate s.a. (YoY) (MAR) |
medium |
0.033 |
0.031 |
|
4/9/2009 |
6:00 AM |
EUR |
German
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR F) |
medium |
0.005 |
0.01 |
|
4/9/2009 |
6:00 AM |
EUR |
German
Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR F) |
medium |
0.004 |
0.004 |
|
4/9/2009 |
8:30 AM |
GBP |
Producer
Price Index Output n.s.a. (YoY)
(MAR) |
medium |
0.021 |
0.031 |
|
4/9/2009 |
8:30 AM |
GBP |
Producer
Price Index Output Core n.s.a. (YoY)
(MAR) |
medium |
0.031 |
0.037 |
|
4/9/2009 |
8:30 AM |
GBP |
Visible
Trade Balance (FEB) |
medium |
-£7.600B |
-£7.745B |
F/X Trader Live Calls
Note: As currency markets are open around the clock, some action in plays can and will occur outside of U.S. trading hours. Please note that emails are only sent to clients between the hours of 9:00am EST to 5:00pm EST, Monday through Friday. Any trade action happening outside of these hours will be confirmed in an email the following morning.
Long Ideas
| Symbol | Trigger Price |
Stop Price | Target Price |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| none |
| Symbol | Trigger Price |
Stop Price | Target Price |
Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| none |
F/X Trader Portfolio
| pair | dir | size | date entered |
entry price |
date closed |
exit price |
target | stop | status | mark to market |
p&l pips |
p&l capital |
capital commit |
OPEN POSITIONS - week of 04/06 - 04/10 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EUR/USD | short | 1 | 04/06/09 | 1.3333 | n/a | n/a | 1.2943 | 1.3300 | open | 1.3267 | 66 | $66 | $133 |
 |
The sell stop triggered and price has slowed giving us reason to tighten both stop and target | ||||||||||||
| USD/JPY | short | 1 | 04/06/09 | 100.59 | n/a | n/a | 99.95 | 100.75 | open | 100.49 | 10 | $100 | $100 |
| |
The sell stop triggered and price retraced nearly to the entry price. We are tightening both stop and target | ||||||||||||
| CLOSED POSITIONS - week of 04/06 - 04/10 | |||||||||||||
| GBP/USD | short | 1 | 04/06/09 | 1.4780 | 04/07/09 | 1.4651 | n/a | n/a | closed | n/a | 129 | $129 | $148 |
| |
Modified profit target hit, exiting trade with profits. | ||||||||||||
Click here for F/X Trader Performance - 2008