ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader for June 3, 2010
The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every
morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses
at ShadowTrader. Overseen by Chief Equity Strategist, Peter Reznicek, each
issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market
internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also
includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on
what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as
provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed
traders and investors.
To get the most out of your subscription,
please read our Swing Trader User's Guide
If you have any
questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter,
please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.
The Big Picture
Good
morning, traders. It looks like we might finally get some resolution to the garbage price action of the past week. Let's go right to the chart of the S&P 500 Index EMini Futures Contract (/ES) below.
We've put a big oval around the hourly /ES price action since last Wednesday to illustrate how impossibly difficult this period has been to trade. The silver lining though is that the area contains at least three points where the next leg lower was imminent only to see shorts frustrated by "in-your-face" rips back higher. The last of such nightmares for bears took place yesterday with a steady march higher right through Tuesday's day ending large red bodied candle (green oval) and then the descending trendline (magenta).
Yesterday, the VIX fell by over five points to settle just above 30.00. ShadowTrader believes that the current setup to move higher and further contraction of the VIX, which will help fuel the move, is just the sort of formula that will drive prices back up to previous highs on the S&P 500 Index (SPY) at 122.00 level. It is from there that we think the market will fall to greater lows. The scenario we described in the May 13, 2010 issue of the ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader could very well be back in play here.
Under The Hood
When we say "under the
hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the
scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on
the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major
averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals.
Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin
figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking
heads on TV are telling you.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10249.54 | | | +225.52 | | +2.25% |
|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1098.38 | | | +27.67 | | +2.58% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 2281.07 | | | +58.74 | | +2.64% |
|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 1879.59 | | | +44.55 | | +2.43% |
|---|
| Russell 2000 | 660.52 | | | +19.56 | | +3.05% |
|---|
| Spot Gold | 1224.00 | | | -0.80 | | -0.07% |
|---|
| Crude Oil | 72.86 | | | +0.28 | | +0.39% |
|---|
| NYSE Overall Volume | 1,351,652K | | | n/a | | -5.64% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Overall Volume | 2,146,529K | | | n/a | | +0.84% |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth | 20.14 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth | 8.70 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth Ratio | 95.27 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth Ratio | 89.69 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Advancers/Decliners | 2149 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners | 1653 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Trin | 0.28 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Trin | 0.47 | | |
|---|
| $VIX | 30.17 | | | -5.37 | | |
|---|
ES Pivot Points for Thursday
|
| R3 | 1133.92 |
|---|
| R2 | 1116.08 |
|---|
| R1 | 1106.42 |
|---|
| Pivot | 1088.58 |
|---|
| S1 | 1078.92 |
|---|
| S2 | 1061.08 |
|---|
| S3 | 1051.42 |
|---|
Pivot points provided by Prodigio RTS. For more information contact: prodigio@thinkorswim.com
| Strongest Groups: | Oil Services | | | Semiconductor | | Biotechnology |
|---|
| Weakest Groups: | Retail | | | Utilities | | Gold |
|---|
Heads Up
Up and coming economic
and corporate data that may move markets this week:
Today - 06/03/2010 08:15 am EST - ADP Employment Report08:30 am EST - Jobless Claims08:30 am EST - Productivity and Costs10:00 am EST - Factory Orders10:00 am EST - ISM Non-MFG Index10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report11:00 am EST - EIA Petroleum Status ReportReporting earnings today: JOYG, SAI, ULTA, WBD
Friday - 06/04/2010 08:30 am EST - Employment SituationReporting earnings today: DCP
Monday
- 06/07/2010
03:00 pm EST - Consumer CreditReporting earnings today: ALTR, DG, THOBulls and Bears
This section is for
self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every
trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with
defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT
necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the
ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are
not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via e-mail alespy
rt.
Long Ideas
| NUVA
| 39.27 |
37.65 |
Double Bottom off 200ma |
| PFCB
| 44.54 |
42.50 |
Ascending triangle |
| ME
| 21.48 |
19.42 |
Bull flag on weeklies |
| MS
| 27.85 |
24.66 |
Consecutive bottoming tails on weeklies |
| CSC
| 50.53 |
46.90 |
Consecutive reversal bars into 200ma on weeklies |
| CVX
| 74.72 |
71.92 |
Hammer into ascending trendline on weeklies |
Short Ideas
ShadowTrader Model Portfolio
The matrix below shows
all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model
Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via
email. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked.
Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the
current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the
matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.
To get the most
out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure
your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide
| OPEN POSITIONS - week of
05/31/10 - 06/04/10 |
| sym |
dir |
size |
date
entered |
entry
price |
date
closed |
exit
price |
target |
stop |
status |
mark
to
market |
p&l
points |
p&l
capital |
capital
commit |
| None | | | | | | | | | | | | | $0.00 |
| CLOSED POSITIONS week of
05/31/10 - 06/04/10 |
| None | | | | | | | | | | | | | $0.00 |
| | TOTALS: |
0 | open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) |
$0.00 |
Click here for year to
date Model Portfolio Performance - 2010
Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009
Click here for Model
Portfolio Performance - 2008
|
