ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader for March 30, 2010
The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader is your every
morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses
at ShadowTrader. Overseen by Chief Equity Strategist, Peter Reznicek, each
issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market
internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also
includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on
what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as
provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed
traders and investors.
To get the most out of your subscription,
please read our Swing Trader User's Guide
If you have any
questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter,
please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.
The Big Picture
Good morning, traders.
The long setups continue to outnumber the short while the S&P 500 Index (SPT) has formed a short term ascending triangle on the daily chart with an eye on our target of the 122.00 level. It's not too far away so as the index gets closer to that level, think about shedding longs as it approaches.
We have six set ups listed for subscribers in today's Bulls and Bears section. Perfect World Co., Ltd. (PWRD) is particularly interesting and we have profiled the trading plan below.
PWRD has traded into what we think is pretty strong support. The stock has hooked around and is very close to touching the backside of the descending megenta trendline which it recently broke above. Horizontal lines of support and resistance are considered to be stronger than trendlines and in this case the stock has touched the horizontal blue dashed line that has acted as a pivot point in the past.
You will notice that the entry range is somewhat wide. This is because we are allowing the chance for entry off the ascending trendline (today only) if price moves that low. Fellow ShadowTraders will have to use their best judgment on the entry. The best way to do this is by monitoring a five minute chart. If price consolidates around the horizontal line, this would be a good (but not perfect) indication that price may not go any lower so it would be an acceptable entry point. If however the stock does not consolidate at the horizontal line, allow more time. Price may go all the way down to the descending trendline before moving back higher.
With all this being said, the stock touched the horizontal support line yesterday which means the stock could just move higher from here. If it does this on strength, the play would be to enter the stock within 1% of yesterday's closing price.
In either case, we have placed the stop just under the previous low, but would consider cutting the trade if it breaks the descending trendline with momentum.
Under The Hood
When we say "under the
hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the
scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on
the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major
averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals.
Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin
figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking
heads on TV are telling you.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 10895.86 | | | +45.50 | | +0.42% |
|---|
| S&P 500 Index | 1173.22 | | | +6.63 | | +0.57% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 2404.36 | | | +9.23 | | +0.39% |
|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 1961.22 | | | +8.59 | | +0.44% |
|---|
| Russell 2000 | 682.25 | | | +3.28 | | +0.48% |
|---|
| Spot Gold | 1109.50 | | | +2.80 | | +0.25% |
|---|
| Crude Oil | 82.50 | | | +2.50 | | +3.13% |
|---|
| NYSE Overall Volume | 944,937K | | | n/a | | -8.23% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Overall Volume | 1,887,964K | | | n/a | | -16.33% |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth | 2.01 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth | 1.50 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth Ratio | 66.83 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth Ratio | 59.93 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Advancers/Decliners | 1148 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners | 436 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Trin | 1.09 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Trin | 0.93 | | |
|---|
| $VIX | 17.59 | | | -0.18 | | |
|---|
ES Pivot Points for Tuesday
|
| R3 | 1177.17 |
|---|
| R2 | 1174.08 |
|---|
| R1 | 1171.42 |
|---|
| Pivot | 1168.33 |
|---|
| S1 | 1165.67 |
|---|
| S2 | 1162.58 |
|---|
| S3 | 1159.92 |
|---|
| Strongest Groups: | Oil Services | | | Gold | | Oil |
|---|
| Weakest Groups: | Home Construction | | | Banking | | Retail |
|---|
Heads Up
Up and coming economic
and corporate data that may move markets this week:
Today - 03/30/2010 09:00 AM EST - S & P Case-Schiller10:00 AM EST - Consumer ConfidenceReporting earnings today: CHT, SAI
Wednesday
- 03/31/2010
08:15 am EST - ADP Employment Report09:45 am EST - Chicago PMI10:00 am EST - Factory Orders10:30 am EST - EIA Petoleum Status ReportReporting earnings today: DG, GPN, MBT, MOS, RIMM, RINO
Thursday - 04/01/201008:30 am EST - Jobless Claims10:00 am EST - ISM Mfg Index10:00 am EST - Construction Spending10:30 am EST - EIA Natural Gas Report02:00 pm EST - Motor Vehicle SalesReporting earnings today: KMX, WORBulls and Bears
This section is for
self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every
trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with
defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT
necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the
ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are
not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via e-mail alert.
Long Ideas
IPI
| 28.86-28.70 |
28.17 |
Looking for entry around pivot level (28.70) | |
RJF
| 27.05-26.90 |
26.40 |
Coming into ascending trendline | |
FAF
| 33.45-33.11 |
32.11 |
At 61.8% Fib Retracement level on daily | |
PWRD
| 36.63-35.82 |
34.70 |
Please see today's Big Picture | |
Short Ideas
GENZ
| 52.67 |
53.85 |
Reversal bar into 200ma on dailies | |
STT
| 46.70-47.11 |
47.51 |
Counter trend play | |
ShadowTrader Model Portfolio
The matrix below shows
all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model
Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-time via
email. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked.
Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the
current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the
matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.
To get the most
out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure
your own portfolio, read our Swing Trader User's Guide
| OPEN POSITIONS - week of
03/29/10 - 04/02/10 |
| sym |
dir |
size |
date
entered |
entry
price |
date
closed |
exit
price |
target |
stop |
status |
mark
to
market |
p&l
points |
p&l
capital |
capital
commit |
| CHK | long | 350 | 03/29 | 22.78 | n/a | n/a | 24.57 | 21.30 | open | 23.28 | 0.5 | $175 | $7,973 |
 |
| CLOSED POSITIONS week of
03/29/10 - 04/02/10 |
| None | | | | | | | | | | | | | $0.00 |
| | TOTALS: |
350 | open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) |
$7,973 |
Click here for year to
date Model Portfolio Performance - 2010
Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2009
Click here for Model
Portfolio Performance - 2008
|
