ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader for September 23, 2009
The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the
resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Overseen by Chief Equity Strategist,
Peter Reznicek, each issue contains a full report on the prior day's
action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were
hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model
Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently
engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and
short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.
To get the most out of your subscription, please read our
Swing Trader User's Guide
If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.
The Big Picture
Good morning, traders.
We are laying it out short and sweet for subscribers today. Let's hit the chart below.
ShadowTrader believes there is strong resistance above the current month's high on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) between the 1080 and 1090 level. What we anticipate is a knee jerk reaction to the FOMC Interest Rate decision today which will push price into this range around the descending magenta trendline. If this occurs, our move will be to short the S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) as the SPX moves into the 1080-1090 range.
In addition, we have a number of trade ideas that we have refrained from listing in today's Bulls and Bears section because of the pending FOMC Interest Rate decision. These potential trade ideas, plus our plan to short the SPY might keep us busy sending out ShadowTraderPro Advisories today, so please be alert to your email inbox.
Under The Hood
When
we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really
happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily
broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all
closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the
context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in
the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast
doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 9829.87 | | | +51.01 | | +0.52% |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 1071.66 | | | +7.00 | | +0.66% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 2146.30 | | | +8.26 | | +0.39% |
|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 1734.09 | | | +2.51 | | +0.14% |
|---|
| Russell 2000 | 620.69 | | | +4.72 | | +0.77% |
|---|
| Spot Gold | 1014.40 | | | +11.00 | | +1.10% |
|---|
| Crude Oil | 71.76 | | | +2.30 | | +3.31% |
|---|
| NYSE Overall Volume | 1266678K | | | n/a | | +5.69% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Overall Volume | 2513464K | | | n/a | | +3.06% |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth | 3.08 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth | 1.2 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth Ratio | 75.52 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth Ratio | 54.61 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Advancers/Decliners | 1298 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners | 393 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Trin | 0.81 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Trin | 1.11 | | |
|---|
| $VIX | 23.08 | | | -0.98 | | |
|---|
ES Pivot Points for Wednesday
|
|---|
| R3 | 1078.25 |
|---|
|
| R2 | 1073.75 |
|---|
|
| R1 | 1070.50 |
|---|
|
| Pivot | 1066.00 |
|---|
|
| S1 | 1062.75 |
|---|
|
| S2 | 1058.25 |
|---|
|
| S3 | 1055.00 |
|---|
|
| Strongest Groups: | Broker/Dealer | | | Gold | | Oil Services |
|---|
| Weakest Groups: | Home Construction | | | Biotechnology | | Utilities |
|---|
Heads Up
Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:
Today
- 09/23/2009
10:30 am EST - Crude Inventories02:15 pm EST - FOMC Rate DecisionReporting earnings today: No stocks $20 or higher with volume greater than 500k reporting.
Thursday - 09/24/2009
08:30 am EST - Initial Claims 08:30 am EST - Continuing Claims 10:00 am EST - Existing Home Sales Reporting earnings today: MKC, RIMM
Friday - 09/25/2009
08:30 am EST - Durable Orders08:30 am EST - Durables, ex Transportation09:55 am EST - Mich Sentiment-Rev10:00 am EST - New Home Sales Reporting earnings today: KBHBulls and Bears
This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do
it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and
short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note:
A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will
end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via e-mail alert.
Long Ideas
Short Ideas
ShadowTrader Model Portfolio
The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model
Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent
out in real-time via email. Bulls and Bears plays above are not
actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with
positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom.
Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and
posted in our performance page here.
To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions
on how to structure your own portfolio, read our
Swing Trader User's Guide
| OPEN POSITIONS - week of 09/21 - 09/25 |
| sym |
dir |
size |
date
entered |
entry
price |
date
closed |
exit
price |
target |
stop |
status |
mark
to
market |
p&l
points |
p&l
capital |
capital
commit |
|---|
| GDX | long | 100 | 09/21 | 44.67 | n/a | n/a | 50.00 | 40.00 | open | 46.26 | 1.59 | $159 | $4,467 |
 |
| CLOSED POSITIONS week of 09/21 - 09/25 |
| sym |
dir |
size |
date
entered |
entry
price |
date
closed |
exit
price |
target |
stop |
status |
mark
to
market |
p&l
points |
p&l
capital |
capital
commit |
| CVD | long | 75 | 09/04 | 54.31 | 09/21 | 55.10 | 63.00 | 55.10 | closed | n/a | 0.79 | $59 | $0.00 |
|
| | TOTALS: |
100 | open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) |
$4,467 |
Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2009
Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
|
