ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader for September 11, 2009
The ShadowTraderPro Swing Trader
is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the
resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Overseen by Chief Equity Strategist,
Peter Reznicek, each issue contains a full report on the prior day's
action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were
hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model
Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently
engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and
short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.
To get the most out of your subscription, please read our
Swing Trader User's Guide
If you have any questions or comments regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to swingtrader@shadowtrader.net.
The Big Picture
Good morning, traders.
Looking for swing trading candidates is often a function of scanning
stocks on many different time frames and then moving down from the
larger to the shorter timeframes in order to drill down to the actual
entry. Using a weekly timeframe first, allowed us to find PENN
which we entered live in the Model Portfolio yesterday.
Penn Natational Gaming(PENN) is a classic double bottom on the weekly chart above. We especially liked the fact that it was coming down to a bottom that
was not any sort of 52 week low or "lowest low". The "bottom" that is
our perceived pivot here is simply a pullback area when viewed on this
longer term weekly chart above.
Moving down to the daily on PENN above, gives us a clear
reference point where the support lies. We are using the bottoming tail
hammer of 7/8 as the low, along with the fact that the 200ma daily
(blue) is also supporting price in this area. So, coming into
yesterday, and knowing that the low is $26.20 from 7/8, we know that we
are going to be watching price at that area very carefully.
Watching PENN open yesterday, we noted that the low was 26.14.
This was a good sign as it was very close to the $26.20 low. Remember
that support is usually an area and not a hard/fast exact number. It's
relatively elastic, to a degree. So, seeing price move .06 lower and
then reverse gave us the first clue that we should be looking to be
buyers. Not wanting to just buy blindly near the low, we waited for
some sort of reversal signal to occur that would tell us that the odds
are strong that this low would hold. When the 9:45 bar took back 100%
of the losses of the previous 5 minute bar which had a large body, we
decided that this was our entry upon close of this bar. Note also how
those first three 5 minute bars were all on relatively low volume (magenta circle). This
is key, showing us that nobody was selling the stock very heavily in
this area as it came down to support. We decided to take smaller size
than usual with a tight stop. This made sense because if that low of
the day was violated, then we probably didn't want to be in the trade
anyways. Upon entry, we set our stop at 25.85 which put us well under
the 7/8 low and also under that 200ma daily.
Under The Hood
When
we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really
happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily
broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all
closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the
context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in
the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast
doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.
| Dow Jones Industrial Average | 9627.48 | | | +80.26 | | +0.84% |
|---|
| S&P 500 | 1044.14 | | | +10.77 | | +1.04% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Composite | 2084.02 | | | +23.63 | | +1.15% |
|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 1686.16 | | | +16.93 | | +1.01% |
|---|
| Russell 2000 | 594.90 | | | +8.50 | | +1.45% |
|---|
| Spot Gold | 996.60 | | | +5.50 | | +0.55% |
|---|
| Crude Oil | 72.15 | | | +0.75 | | +1.05% |
|---|
| NYSE Overall Volume | 1,580,281K | | | n/a | | +18.83% |
|---|
| Nasdaq Overall Volume | 2,483,736K | | | n/a | | -1.62% |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth | 4.25 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth | 4.25 : 1 | | | Positive | | |
|---|
| NYSE Breadth Ratio | 80.97 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Breadth Ratio | 80.97 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Advancers/Decliners | 1586 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners | 933 | | |
|---|
| NYSE Trin | 0.75 | | |
|---|
| Nasdaq Trin | 0.49 | | |
|---|
| $VIX | 23.55 | | | -0.77 | | |
|---|
ES Pivot Points for Friday
(note: now based on December 2009 contract) |
|---|
| R3 | 1060.16 |
|---|
|
| R2 | 1049.83 |
|---|
|
| R1 | 1043.66 |
|---|
|
| Pivot | 1033.33 |
|---|
|
| S1 | 1027.16 |
|---|
|
| S2 | 1016.83 |
|---|
|
| S3 | 1010.66 |
|---|
|
| Strongest Groups: | Gold | | | Internet | | Oil Services |
|---|
| Weakest Groups: | Biotechnology | | | Utilities | | Pharmaceutical |
|---|
Heads Up
Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:
Today - 09/11/2009
08:30 am EST - Export Prices ex-ag.08:30 am EST - Import Prices ex-oil09:55 am EST - Michigan Sentiment-Prel 10:00 am EST - Wholesale Inventories 02:00 pm EST - Treasury Budget Reporting earnings today: CPB
Monday - 09/14/2009
No economic news currently scheduled Reporting earnings today: PLL, SSL
Tuesday
- 09/15/2009
08:30 am EST - Core PPI08:30 am EST - PPI08:30 am EST - Retail Sales08:30 am EST - Retail Sales ex-auto08:30 am EST - Empire Manufacturing10:00 am EST - Business InventoriesReported earnings today: ADBE, BBY, KRBulls and Bears
This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do
it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and
short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note:
A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will
end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via e-mail alert.
Long Ideas
THS
| 37.16 |
35.80 |
Aggressive entry with stop under double bottom |
|
THS
| 38.28 |
36.22 |
More conservative breakout entry with stop under yesterday's reversal bar |
|
Short Ideas
ShadowTrader Model Portfolio
The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model
Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent
out in real-time via email. Bulls and Bears plays above are not
actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with
positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom.
Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and
posted in our performance page here.
To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions
on how to structure your own portfolio, read our
Swing Trader User's Guide
| OPEN POSITIONS - week of 09/08 - 09/11 |
| sym |
dir |
size |
date
entered |
entry
price |
date
closed |
exit
price |
target |
stop |
status |
mark
to
market |
p&l
points |
p&l
capital |
capital
commit |
|---|
| MO | long | 400 | 07/28 | 17.66 | n/a | n/a | 20.00 | 17.00 | open | 18.53 | 0.87 | $348 | $7,064 |
 |
| EPD | long | 325 | 08/24 | 27.68 | n/a | n/a | 30.00 | 26.08 | open | 28.19 | 0.51 | $166 | $8,996 |
|
| EPR | long | 175 | 09/09 | 31.78 | n/a | n/a | 37.00 | 29.00 | open | 32.63 | 0.85 | $149 | $6,562 |
|
| CVD | long | 175 | 09/04 | 54.31 | n/a | n/a | 63.00 | 51.40 | open | 56.99 | 2.68 | $469 | $10,504 |
|
| PENN | long | 250 | 09/10 | 26.35 | n/a | n/a | 29.00 | 25.85 | open | 27 | 0.65 | $163 | $7,588 |
|
| CLOSED POSITIONS week of 09/08 - 09/11 |
| sym |
dir |
size |
date
entered |
entry
price |
date
closed |
exit
price |
target |
stop |
status |
mark
to
market |
p&l
points |
p&l
capital |
capital
commit |
| HXM | long | 150 | 08/27 | 36.17 | 09/09 | 39 | 41.50 | 38.73 | closed | n/a | 2.83 | $425 | $0.00 |
|
| | TOTALS: |
1,325 | open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) |
$37,714 |
Click here for year to date Model Portfolio Performance - 2009
Click here for Model Portfolio Performance - 2008
|
