ShadowTraderPro Focus Report for April 23, 2008

The ShadowTraderPro Focus Report is your every morning dose of market reality brought to you from the resident geniuses at ShadowTrader. Overseen by Chief Equity Strategist, Peter Reznicek, each issue contains a full report on the prior day's action, including market internals, technicals, and what sectors were hot and cold. Each issue also includes the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio, which updates members on what stock plays STPro is currently engaged in officially, as well as provide a daily list of long and short setups for more self-directed traders and investors.

If you have any questions regarding commentary or plays in this newsletter, please email to focusreport@shadowtrader.net.

The Big Picture




Good Morning, Traders. In our never-ending quest to provide you, our loyal subscribers more bang for your buck, we've added a new feature to the Focus Report in the form of floor trader pivots. If you take a peek down below into the Under the Hood section under the $VIX you'll see them listed for the first time there. These are the pivot points which often give quite accurate intraday support and resistance levels for the broad market, as measured by the E-mini S&P futures. Peter will be doing an in depth video this coming weekend on how to use the pivots in your trading. Not a daytrader you say? No problem. We here at ShadowTrader feel very strongly that what is happening in the market on the fifteen minute charts can greatly influence your entries on the daily and weekly charts. Simply put, get the broad market moving in your direction or about to turn before entering a swing play. Try and get in longs on days that are up and shorts on days that are down. If you are near a pivot, wait and you could easily get yourself a more favorable entry. The chart above is yesterday's action. Note how the S3 pivot was the exact bottom of the day, not once but twice! This happens almost daily and this chart is not only a perfect example but also fits in well with the context of what is currently happening in the broad market. The broad market is coming down gently off of the last leg up and pretty much setting up for some buying again. Traders who trusted the pivots and possibly legged into swing trades (with partial size we hope!) at the S3 pivot were rewarded. People who threw in the towel on longs they already had as the $SPX dropped down to 1370 were punished for selling at the wrong time, because they were only watching their stock and not what the S&P was doing. They didn't pay attention at all to what was happening intraday and when the S&P was touching 1370 they just wanted out, out out! Of course, their stock bounced hard right after they dumped their shares.

More on how the pivots are calculated and when is an S not an S and when is an R not really an R in this weekend's video. For now, check the glossary entry on the Pivot Points at ShadowTrader.net, here.

Under The Hood

When we say "under the hood" we mean market internals, ie: what was really happening behind the scenes. ShadowTraders who listen to our daily broadcast every day live on the thinkorswim platform know that all closing figures on the major averages should only be interpreted in the context of market internals. Look for convergences and divergences in the breadth, a/d line, and trin figures below to either confirm or cast doubt on what all those talking heads on TV are telling you.

Dow Jones Industrial Average 12,720.00 -105.02 -0.82%
S&P 500 1,375.94 -12.23 -0.88%
Nasdaq Composite 2,376.94 -31.10 -1.29%
Nasdaq 100 1,881.65 -31.47 -1.64%
Russell 2000 703.71 -14.29 -1.99%
Spot Gold $925.20/oz. +7.60 +0.83%
Crude Oil $119.37/bbl. +1.89 +1.61%
NYSE Overall Volume 1,258,760K n/a +16%
Nasdaq Overall Volume 1,927,030K n/a +29%
NYSE Breadth 2.5 : 1 negative
Nasdaq Breadth 3.2 : 1 negative
NYSE Breadth Ratio 24.99
Nasdaq Breadth Ratio 22.32
NYSE Advancers/Decliners -1,460
Nasdaq Advancers/Decliners -1,388
NYSE Trin 1.0
NASDAQ Trin 1.08
$VIX 20.87 +0.37
ES Pivot Points for Wednesday
R3 1401.58
R2 1393.42
R1 1387.08
Pivot 1378.92
S1 1372.58
S2 1364.42
S3 1358.08
Strongest Groups: Internet Semis Amex Oil
Weakest Groups: Airlines Homebuilders Retail

Heads Up

Up and coming economic and corporate data that may move markets this week:

Today
10:30am EST - Crude Inventories
Reporting earnings before the open: HPB, BIIB, BA, CXG, DAL, FCL, FCX, GD, GENZ, GSK,
JAKK, PBG, ROK, WLP
After the close: AMZN, AAPL, CMG, NE, NTRI, PHM, QCOM, RRC, RYL, TEX
Thursday
08:30am EST - Durable Goods Orders
08:30am EST - Jobless Claims
10:00am EST - Help Wanted Index
10:00am EST - New Home Sales
Reporting earnings before the open: MMM, BDC, BMY, BG, CNH, COP, CNX, DO, DOW,
FLIR, F, BEN, IMCL, KSU, FSTR, MOT, NEM, NIHD, NIHD, NOC, OXY, POT, SI, TROW, UNP,
WCG, XMSR
After the close: MO, BIDU, BUCY, CF, RIO, KLAC, MEE, WFR, MSFT, NTGR, RVBD, PCU
Friday
10:00am EST - Consumer Sentiment
Reporting earnings before the open: CVH, GT, ERIC, WEN

Bulls and Bears

This section is for self-directed traders and investors who like to "do it themselves". Every trading day, Bulls and Bears will list long and short equity setups with defined entries and stops. Note: A listing in this section does NOT necessarily mean that the stock will end up as a part of the ShadowTraderPro Model Portfolio. Plays listed here change daily and are not managed or tracked by ShadowTrader unless traded via e-mail alert.

Long Ideas
 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
GS 181.50 178.30 break of downtrendline from tight range
MATR 23.65 23.10 strong reversal off the lows
BBD 22.05 21.30 breakout play above 22.00
Short Ideas
 Symbol Trigger Price Stop Price Notes
MOH 22.58 should see weakness until major support at $20/ stop high of breakdown bar (using daily chart)

ShadowTrader Model Portfolio

The matrix below shows all current ShadowTrader Pro plays in the Model Portfolio. The Model Portfolio contains only those plays that are sent out in real-rime via email. Bulls and Bears plays above are not actively managed or tracked. Current open positions are on top, with positions that were closed in the current calendar week on the bottom. Closed positions are moved out of the matrix on Monday mornings and posted in our performance page here.
To get the most out of your subscription and for detailed instructions on how to structure your own portfolio, read our Focus Report User's Guide

sym dir size date
entered		 entry
price		 date
closed		 exit
price		 target stop status mark
to
market		 p&l
points		 p&l
capital		 capital
commit
 OPEN POSITIONS - week of 4/21 - 4/25
CHL long 100 4/16/08 83.45 n/a n/a 96.00 83.40 open 84.58 1.13 $113 $8,458
 comments: holding above breakout pivot at 84.00 /bought 50 shares at 82.80 & 50 at 84.10
 CLOSED POSITIONS week of 4/21 - 4/25
none
 comments:
  TOTALS: 100 open shares (open capital committed doesn't include closed trades) $8,458
Click here for ShadowTrader Pro closed trade stats
All content © 2007 by ShadowTrader Technologies, LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: Disclaimer and Waiver of Claims: The ShadowTraderPro Focus Report is a newsletter service, designed as supplemental material for the ShadowTraderPro Newsletter subscription service and it is not intended to be a stand alone newsletter. The risk of loss in the trading of any securities products can be substantial. The strategies mentioned here are active trading strategies, therefore you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your personal investment objectives and financial resources. This material is for information purposes only and should not be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Past performance of any trades mentioned never guarantees future results.

Securities and options involve risk and are not suitable for all investors. See the characteristics and risks of standardized options.